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Jack Balkin: jackbalkin at yahoo.com Bruce Ackerman bruce.ackerman at yale.edu Ian Ayres ian.ayres at yale.edu Corey Brettschneider corey_brettschneider at brown.edu Mary Dudziak mary.l.dudziak at emory.edu Joey Fishkin joey.fishkin at gmail.com Heather Gerken heather.gerken at yale.edu Abbe Gluck abbe.gluck at yale.edu Mark Graber mgraber at law.umaryland.edu Stephen Griffin sgriffin at tulane.edu Jonathan Hafetz jonathan.hafetz at shu.edu Jeremy Kessler jkessler at law.columbia.edu Andrew Koppelman akoppelman at law.northwestern.edu Marty Lederman msl46 at law.georgetown.edu Sanford Levinson slevinson at law.utexas.edu David Luban david.luban at gmail.com Gerard Magliocca gmaglioc at iupui.edu Jason Mazzone mazzonej at illinois.edu Linda McClain lmcclain at bu.edu John Mikhail mikhail at law.georgetown.edu Frank Pasquale pasquale.frank at gmail.com Nate Persily npersily at gmail.com Michael Stokes Paulsen michaelstokespaulsen at gmail.com Deborah Pearlstein dpearlst at yu.edu Rick Pildes rick.pildes at nyu.edu David Pozen dpozen at law.columbia.edu Richard Primus raprimus at umich.edu K. Sabeel Rahmansabeel.rahman at brooklaw.edu Alice Ristroph alice.ristroph at shu.edu Neil Siegel siegel at law.duke.edu David Super david.super at law.georgetown.edu Brian Tamanaha btamanaha at wulaw.wustl.edu Nelson Tebbe nelson.tebbe at brooklaw.edu Mark Tushnet mtushnet at law.harvard.edu Adam Winkler winkler at ucla.edu Compendium of posts on Hobby Lobby and related cases The Anti-Torture Memos: Balkinization Posts on Torture, Interrogation, Detention, War Powers, and OLC The Anti-Torture Memos (arranged by topic) Recent Posts Rolling the "legacy" dice with John McCain
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Friday, September 05, 2008
Rolling the "legacy" dice with John McCain
Sandy Levinson
Forget Sarah Palin for a while, who is likely to play the role in McCain Administration quite similar to that played by the equally unqualified Spiro Agnew in the Nixon Administration, throwing red meat to the base but otherwise totally ignored in the policy-making process. (By the bizarre way that "experience" is currently being defined, Agnew and Ed Muskie were more "experienced" than the people at the top of the ticket, as is the case with Palin relative to McCain, of course.) And even ignore the actuarial risks we run by electing a 72-year-0ld cancer survivor who also bears physical scars of his having been tortured for years by the North Vietnamese. (I gather that the actuarial odds of his dying in the next 4 years are about 1 in 6, which is, of course, the same odds as one gets in playing Russian roulette.)
Comments:
Sandy,
Would you require a candidate to make a contractual obligation to run for a second term before running for their first? Also, can't the idea of legacy be expanded to include not only history-making self-aggrandizing behavior, but the opportunities he leaves to his preferred political successor? Might not McCain have a responsible bone in his body that prefers to see his "good work" continue, rather than go down in a blaze of (non-transferrable) glory?
Sandy:
I completely agree that a vote for McCain to pursue a conservative agenda is to put it generously a leap of faith. However, I would suggest that your reliance on the discipline of a reelection to compel Obama to pursue the liberal agenda you believe he desires is misplaced. In fact, this discipline is likely to inhibit a liberal agenda. Much as the congressional Dems who were elected in 2006, Obama is running as a centrist and not a liberal. Obama runs from that term like a vampire from holy water. Thus, neither the Dem Congress elected in 2006 nor a potential President Obama elected in 2008 can honestly claim a mandate for liberal change. The discipline of a future election will inhibit Obama from pressing a liberal agenda as it has the 2006 Dem Congress. To the extent the Dems forget that the voters are watching, I would suggest that a rebuke along the lines of 1994 is in store for 2010.
Well, finally a good point. I really have no idea what McCain would do in office, or rather what he'd try to do, given the Democratic Congress he'll have to work with. He could continue on with this conservative act, or he could go back to being a moderate. We do know that he almost certainly won't turn into a liberal, however - depending on your policy preferences that's a good or bad thing. But I think the wild card possibilities ought to appeal to folks a little left-of-center. With Bush, you knew you were getting a neoconservative; with McCain, you might get something far more agreeable.
Tray:
... or he [McCain] could go back to being a moderate. He never was a moderate. His ACU scores are right up there. Or course, as of late he's also shown strong GOP/RWA urges, but that's just pandering to get elected (he hopes). Cheers,
I am delighted to register a measure of agreement with Bart and Tray. I.e., Obama has clearly tacked toward the center in his campaign, and it would be foolhardy to expect him to be particularly "liberal," as that term is used these days, in his first term. As Hillary kept insisting (with the ubiquitous support of Paul Krugman), his medical plan is marginally more conservative than her own.
And Tray and I agree that (almost) anything is possible with McCain, As for pms's question, I wouldn't require a promise to run for a second term. I'm simply pointing out that one widely-endorsed model of "democracy" emphasizes not only popular choice at the outset but also the incentives provided by electoral accountability at next election. If one doesn't fear the wrath of voters, then that particular incentive disappears, and presidents are left freer, for better and worse, to do what they believe "right." Given that McCain has no ascertainable overall view of politics beyond moralism and an emphasis on his own rectitude, I don't think he will concentrate on preparing for his successor. And surely one (but only one) trait linked to the military is the desire for glory, especially if one is standing up for one's vision of the good.
Two things - I think McCain does have some ascertainable overall view of politics. On the margins, it gets kind of sketchy, but in the main I see him as a TR Republican. This can generate some surprising policy, like campaign-finance reform and his newfound interest in wage insurance*. However, anything that would cost a lot of money, like a robust school choice program or wage insurance, is likely to get hamstrung by his refusal to raise taxes and/or the Democratic Congress. Even though he could cut a deal with a Democratic Congress on higher taxes if he wanted to, and even though he may well not run again in 2012, I doubt he would because he's made such a fuss about how he won't, and if Palin were to run in 2012 it would still be a broken promise of sorts. So I see him, on domestic policy, as a Republican with a few surprisingly progressive ideas that probably won't get off the ground. Or in other words, nothing meaningful would happen on the domestic front during a McCain administration. Second point - I'm not sure that Obama isn't nearly as much of a mystery as McCain. You could see a quite thoroughgoing liberal agenda, but, after all the tacking to the center he's done in this campaign, I'm beginning to wonder if he isn't just as much of a poll-driven pragmatist as Clinton was. I thought the FISA vote was cowardly, and I have a really tough time believing that he disagreed with the decision in Kennedy v. Louisiana, as he claimed to.
* Mentioned in the speech last night for what most thought was the first time, but apparently he's talked about it before - see below for a decent treatment of what McCain-style wage insurance might look like. http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2007/12/24/mccains-big-government-economic-idea.html
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