Balkinization  

Thursday, December 04, 2025

Tariff Twilight

Gerard N. Magliocca

We are now about a month out from oral argument in the tariff case. Costco filed suit the other day to get refunds. Surely other similar suits will follow. This prompts me to reiterate that the Court needs to take care that there are no leaks of this opinion, as that will move markets. (To quote "Yes, Minister," the ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top.) The Court also needs to think hard about the timing of the opinion's announcement, as that will move markets.

Finally, there may be an analogy between this case and Schechter Poultry. The National Industrial Recovery Act was the signature economic legislation of the first New Deal. By 1935, though, the Act was very unpopular. This helps explain why the Court struck it down and (maybe) did FDR a favor. The tariffs and Donald Trump are about as popular as Captain Hook right now, so a similar dynamic may be at play. 


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