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Kevin McCarthy’s Speakership and the Undiscovered Country
David Super
John Boehner, Paul
Ryan, and Nancy Pelosi all seem rather happy as former Speakers of the
House.Yet Kevin McCarthy seems fiercely
determined not to join their number.The
question remains what price he is willing to pay to keep his gavel.We will find out soon.
Because Speaker
McCarthy lacks deeply-held beliefs of any kind, he naturally is not a true
believer of the Freedom Caucus’s Trumpian orthodoxy.Freedom Caucus Members from the beginning
have been divided over whether he is a useful soothing public face for their
agenda or a betrayer in waiting.Rep.
Matt Gaetz, one of the most McCarthy-skeptical Members from the beginning, is now
trying to lay the public groundwork for a vote to oust the Speaker.Speaker McCarthy may have thought he would
reap gratitude for announcing that he was opening an impeachment inquiry into
President Hunter Biden – er, I mean, President Joe Biden – but he was greeted
with scorn
from Freedom Caucus and adjacent Members, who complained that this should have
happened long ago and in any event was no substitute for enforcing their hard
line on radical domestic appropriations cuts.
The Speaker is
becoming increasingly boxed-in, and the more he tries to stall, the more
perilous his predicament becomes.Yes,
he may have bought temporary peace on this issue within his caucus by ordering
an impeachment inquiry, but at a heavy long-term cost to his party.Now that this inquiry has started, it can
only end in one of three ways, each of which will harm Republicans.
First, the Freedom
Caucus and its allies can bring articles of impeachment to the floor and
prevail.That will require all but four Republicans
in vulnerable seats to vote “yes” (all but three if Rep. George Santos has
taken a plea deal by then).Voting for
an evidence-free impeachment would shred the credibility of those in competitive
districts who like to run as “moderates”.It also would likely result in a prompt Senate trial after which many
Senate Republicans will feel they have to vote “no”.(Senators tend to be more risk-averse than
House Members, and they are not protected by gerrymandering.)Far from tarring the President, this would
loudly exonerate him in the eyes of many as the campaign is heating up.It also would invite awkward comparisons to
the progress of former President Trump’s cases.
Second, the Freedom
Caucus can bring articles of impeachment to the floor and fail.That likely would cause a major rupture in
the House Republican Caucus, destroying its effectiveness and sparking several
divisive and expensive primaries of Members already struggling to fend off
Democrats.(House Minority Leader
Jeffries will bring the popcorn.)House
Republicans will surely lose seats as a result, and, again, President Biden
will powerfully be exonerated.
And third, vulnerable
House Republicans may succeed in keeping articles of impeachment from moving
forward.It is not clear how they would accomplish
this.The usual route for vulnerable
Members is to speak with caucus leadership.Such private appeals prompted Speaker Pelosi to firmly oppose bringing
articles of impeachment against President Trump over his role in Russian
interference with the 2016 election.But
Speaker McCarthy has so little credibility or clout that few far-right Members
likely would listen to him.And, yet
again, bottling up impeachment in committee after launching a formal inquiry would
give President Biden a powerful exoneration.Perhaps their best chance would be to launch long-shot litigation
against the Administration for the release of sensitive-but-irrelevant
documents and blame their inaction on (wholly predictable) litigation
delays.
Yet the
impeachment inquiry is not the most serious or most imminent threat to the
Speaker’s gavel.That is the fast-approaching
government shutdown on October 1.Here
he may not have much chance to stall:the
Freedom Caucus has vociferously nixed postponing the shutdown with a stop-gap “continuing
resolution” unless they receive policy concessions in advance that are
non-starters with Democrats.In
particular, they are demanding that any federal or state prosecutor acting
against former President Trump be defunded.So it is hard to see how the shutdown’s start is delayed beyond October 1.
The Speaker may
have even bigger problems within the Republican Party on appropriations than he
does on impeachment.He acceded to the
Freedom Caucus’s demands to abandon the spending levels he agreed upon with
President Biden in June, and the House Appropriations Committee has been moving
bills whose spending levels would devastate numerous popular programs and that
contain extreme, highly controversial policy riders.It remains unclear how many of these can muster
218 votes on the House floor; attempts to move various appropriations bills in
August had to be scrapped for lack of Republican support.
More
significantly, Senate Republicans are hanging their House colleagues out to
dry.Democrats and Republicans on the
Senate Appropriations Committee have harmoniously crafted a complete set of
twelve bipartisan bills, some of which they reported out unanimously.Speaker McCarthy will have considerable
difficulty portraying a government shutdown as a crusade against out-of-control
Democratic spending if simply passing the Senate’s bipartisan bills is an obvious
option – all the more so if the House cannot pass any version of some of
the appropriations bills.Although
Republican appropriators have taken the lead in this effort, it would not be
possible without the tacit support of Senate Minority Leader McConnell.Et tu, Mitch?
So where does this
all end?The House Freedom Caucus has created
a situation in which Speaker McCarthy can only move legislation with Democratic
support.And to get any Democratic support
for appropriations bills, he will have to revert to the spending levels he
agreed upon in June – which already require serious cuts – and drop the far-right
policy riders.That will cause him to
lose Republicans in droves, which in turn will force him to win the great
majority of the Democratic Caucus, as happened in June on the debt limit
deal.But getting all those Democratic
votes will require still-more concessions.
That
appropriations legislation will infuriate the Freedom Caucus.If they then do not move to vacate the
Speaker’s chair after actions they have so clearly cast a betrayal, they will never
have credibility to threaten to oust Speaker McCarthy.
A motion to vacate
his chair will present Speaker McCarthy will an unpalatable choice.He cannot possibly prevent at least five
Republicans – and likely many more – from voting to remove him.The only way he could survive is if Democrats
abstain in droves.And inducing
Democrats to do that will surely require even more concessions, likely in
private.It also will mean that, after nine
months of owing his gavel to the indulgence of the House Freedom Caucus, he
will henceforth owe his position to the indulgence of the House Democratic
Caucus.
At that point,
Representative McCarthy will have to decide whether he prefers to be a
Republican speaker dependent on Democratic votes – novel federally although
with occasional precedent in the states – or to join John Boehner, Paul Ryan,
and Nancy Pelosi in an undiscovered country from whose bourn no Speaker returns.Perhaps the prospect of surrendering his gavel
will so puzzle his will that it will make him rather bear those ills he has than
fly to others that he knows not of?