Balkinization
an unanticipated consequence of
Jack M. Balkin
Balkinization Symposiums: A Continuing List
E-mail:
Jack Balkin:
jackbalkin at yahoo.com
Bruce Ackerman
bruce.ackerman at yale.edu
Ian Ayres
ian.ayres at yale.edu
Corey Brettschneider
corey_brettschneider at brown.edu
Mary Dudziak
mary.l.dudziak at emory.edu
Joey Fishkin
joey.fishkin at gmail.com
Heather Gerken heather.gerken at yale.edu
Abbe Gluck abbe.gluck at yale.edu
Mark Graber
mgraber at law.umaryland.edu
Stephen Griffin
sgriffin at tulane.edu
Jonathan Hafetz
jonathan.hafetz at shu.edu
Jeremy Kessler
jkessler at law.columbia.edu
Andrew Koppelman
akoppelman at law.northwestern.edu
Marty Lederman
msl46 at law.georgetown.edu
Sanford Levinson
slevinson at law.utexas.edu
David Luban
david.luban at gmail.com
Gerard Magliocca
gmaglioc at iupui.edu
Jason Mazzone
mazzonej at illinois.edu
Linda McClain
lmcclain at bu.edu
John Mikhail
mikhail at law.georgetown.edu
Frank Pasquale
pasquale.frank at gmail.com
Nate Persily
npersily at gmail.com
Michael Stokes Paulsen
michaelstokespaulsen at gmail.com
Deborah Pearlstein
dpearlst at yu.edu
Rick Pildes
rick.pildes at nyu.edu
David Pozen
dpozen at law.columbia.edu
Richard Primus
raprimus at umich.edu
K. Sabeel Rahmansabeel.rahman at brooklaw.edu
Alice Ristroph
alice.ristroph at shu.edu
Neil Siegel
siegel at law.duke.edu
David Super
david.super at law.georgetown.edu
Brian Tamanaha
btamanaha at wulaw.wustl.edu
Nelson Tebbe
nelson.tebbe at brooklaw.edu
Mark Tushnet
mtushnet at law.harvard.edu
Adam Winkler
winkler at ucla.edu
Compendium of posts on Hobby Lobby and related cases
The Anti-Torture Memos: Balkinization Posts on Torture, Interrogation, Detention, War Powers, and OLC
The Anti-Torture Memos (arranged by topic)
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What Chance Do the Republicans Have of Maintaining Control of the House
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Thursday, October 19, 2006
What Chance Do the Republicans Have of Maintaining Control of the House
Ian Ayres
Lots of pundits and polls spill ink on this, but prediction markets are the best summary statistic.
If you're becoming obsessed about knowing where we stand, you can find out the current odds for Republican control the house by clicking here (currently about 35%) and Republican control of the Senate by clicking here (currently about 65%). These links are constantly updated, so bookmark them and checkback often.
Here's a graph showing the price/probability for republican control of the house. Notice how it decisively dipped below the 50% probability in wake of the Foley scandal:
Slate's summary makes it seem like the Senate control is really a toss up. But the smart money suggests that Republicans have at the moment about a 2-1 chance of retaining control.
Posted
6:25 AM
by Ian Ayres [link]
Comments:
It would be a mistake to count the GOP out in the House based on media polls. The polls of "likely voters" in the actual competitive districts are all over the place, indicating the polls themselves are inaccurate or the electorate is unsettled on for whom they plan to vote.
The last polling for Congress in an off year election in 2002 predicted that the GOP would lose seats, when they actually gained.
http://www.riehlworldview.com/
carnivorous_conservative/2006/10/
a_unique_perspe.html
How can this be? This has received comparatively little press, but the GOP has elevated voter turnout to a carefully managed science based on massive numbers of volunteers making communicating by phone and door to door with GOP leaning voters specially identified for interest in certain issues.
The worry among many Elephants (and hope among many Donkeys) was that the volunteers and thus the voters would not turn out amidst the torrent of "bad news." That does not appear to be the case so far. Instead, volunteer contacts are reportedly up.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/
archives/2006/10/are_republican.html
Even amidst this adverse electoral environment, this methodology was most recently used to elect Brian Bilbray in the district vacated by the disgraced Duke Cunningham...
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/15/
america/NA_POL_US_Turning_Out_Voters.php
And to save Lincoln Chafee in a hotly contested primary where he was trailing his conservative opponent in many polls.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2006/09/13/
AR2006091302254.html
This is probably the reason for Mr. Rove's fascinating self confidence while many fellow Elephants are tearing out their hair. That and about $100 million in Elephant ads which are about to hit the airways.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/
20061018-123042-6508r.htm
This election will be Rove's stiffest test yet, though. The media environment is toxic in a sixth year of an unpopular presidency. The next couple weeks should be very interesting for political junkies like myself.
The last polling for Congress in an off year election in 2002 predicted that the GOP would lose seats, when they actually gained.
http://www.riehlworldview.com/
carnivorous_conservative/2006/10/
a_unique_perspe.html
How can this be? This has received comparatively little press, but the GOP has elevated voter turnout to a carefully managed science based on massive numbers of volunteers making communicating by phone and door to door with GOP leaning voters specially identified for interest in certain issues.
The worry among many Elephants (and hope among many Donkeys) was that the volunteers and thus the voters would not turn out amidst the torrent of "bad news." That does not appear to be the case so far. Instead, volunteer contacts are reportedly up.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/
archives/2006/10/are_republican.html
Even amidst this adverse electoral environment, this methodology was most recently used to elect Brian Bilbray in the district vacated by the disgraced Duke Cunningham...
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/15/
america/NA_POL_US_Turning_Out_Voters.php
And to save Lincoln Chafee in a hotly contested primary where he was trailing his conservative opponent in many polls.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2006/09/13/
AR2006091302254.html
This is probably the reason for Mr. Rove's fascinating self confidence while many fellow Elephants are tearing out their hair. That and about $100 million in Elephant ads which are about to hit the airways.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/
20061018-123042-6508r.htm
This election will be Rove's stiffest test yet, though. The media environment is toxic in a sixth year of an unpopular presidency. The next couple weeks should be very interesting for political junkies like myself.
Yes, you're being paranoid.
The Republicans win because the Senate is gerrymandered by history (D votes the last three cycles outnumber Rs, and not by 537) and because the House is gerrymandered by design.
On the latter subject see this fabulous model work (PDF), or just look at my version (PNG) of Paul Krugman's clever partisan-vote-by-district analysis (TimesSelect).
There has been plenty of cheating on both sides (viz. FL2K), but in 2004, the (R) candidates won fair and square, insofar as gerrymandering is legal and, in the case of the Senate, enshrined in the Constitution.
Parenthetically, a Californian, I look forward to the utopia in which Ted Stevens is met by 55 (fifty-five) Barbara Boxers.
The Republicans win because the Senate is gerrymandered by history (D votes the last three cycles outnumber Rs, and not by 537) and because the House is gerrymandered by design.
On the latter subject see this fabulous model work (PDF), or just look at my version (PNG) of Paul Krugman's clever partisan-vote-by-district analysis (TimesSelect).
There has been plenty of cheating on both sides (viz. FL2K), but in 2004, the (R) candidates won fair and square, insofar as gerrymandering is legal and, in the case of the Senate, enshrined in the Constitution.
Parenthetically, a Californian, I look forward to the utopia in which Ted Stevens is met by 55 (fifty-five) Barbara Boxers.
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Books by Balkinization Bloggers
Linda C. McClain and Aziza Ahmed, The Routledge Companion to Gender and COVID-19 (Routledge, 2024)
David Pozen, The Constitution of the War on Drugs (Oxford University Press, 2024)
Jack M. Balkin, Memory and Authority: The Uses of History in Constitutional Interpretation (Yale University Press, 2024)
Mark A. Graber, Punish Treason, Reward Loyalty: The Forgotten Goals of Constitutional Reform after the Civil War (University of Kansas Press, 2023)
Jack M. Balkin, What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said: The Nation's Top Legal Experts Rewrite America's Most Controversial Decision - Revised Edition (NYU Press, 2023)
Andrew Koppelman, Burning Down the House: How Libertarian Philosophy Was Corrupted by Delusion and Greed (St. Martin’s Press, 2022)
Gerard N. Magliocca, Washington's Heir: The Life of Justice Bushrod Washington (Oxford University Press, 2022)
Joseph Fishkin and William E. Forbath, The Anti-Oligarchy Constitution: Reconstructing the Economic Foundations of American Democracy (Harvard University Press, 2022)
Mark Tushnet and Bojan Bugaric, Power to the People: Constitutionalism in the Age of Populism (Oxford University Press 2021).
Mark Philip Bradley and Mary L. Dudziak, eds., Making the Forever War: Marilyn B. Young on the Culture and Politics of American Militarism Culture and Politics in the Cold War and Beyond (University of Massachusetts Press, 2021).
Jack M. Balkin, What Obergefell v. Hodges Should Have Said: The Nation's Top Legal Experts Rewrite America's Same-Sex Marriage Decision (Yale University Press, 2020)
Frank Pasquale, New Laws of Robotics: Defending Human Expertise in the Age of AI (Belknap Press, 2020)
Jack M. Balkin, The Cycles of Constitutional Time (Oxford University Press, 2020)
Mark Tushnet, Taking Back the Constitution: Activist Judges and the Next Age of American Law (Yale University Press 2020).
Andrew Koppelman, Gay Rights vs. Religious Liberty?: The Unnecessary Conflict (Oxford University Press, 2020)
Ezekiel J Emanuel and Abbe R. Gluck, The Trillion Dollar Revolution: How the Affordable Care Act Transformed Politics, Law, and Health Care in America (PublicAffairs, 2020)
Linda C. McClain, Who's the Bigot?: Learning from Conflicts over Marriage and Civil Rights Law (Oxford University Press, 2020)
Sanford Levinson and Jack M. Balkin, Democracy and Dysfunction (University of Chicago Press, 2019)
Sanford Levinson, Written in Stone: Public Monuments in Changing Societies (Duke University Press 2018)
Mark A. Graber, Sanford Levinson, and Mark Tushnet, eds., Constitutional Democracy in Crisis? (Oxford University Press 2018)
Gerard Magliocca, The Heart of the Constitution: How the Bill of Rights became the Bill of Rights (Oxford University Press, 2018)
Cynthia Levinson and Sanford Levinson, Fault Lines in the Constitution: The Framers, Their Fights, and the Flaws that Affect Us Today (Peachtree Publishers, 2017)
Brian Z. Tamanaha, A Realistic Theory of Law (Cambridge University Press 2017)
Sanford Levinson, Nullification and Secession in Modern Constitutional Thought (University Press of Kansas 2016)
Sanford Levinson, An Argument Open to All: Reading The Federalist in the 21st Century (Yale University Press 2015)
Stephen M. Griffin, Broken Trust: Dysfunctional Government and Constitutional Reform (University Press of Kansas, 2015)
Frank Pasquale, The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information (Harvard University Press, 2015)
Bruce Ackerman, We the People, Volume 3: The Civil Rights Revolution (Harvard University Press, 2014)
Balkinization Symposium on We the People, Volume 3: The Civil Rights Revolution
Joseph Fishkin, Bottlenecks: A New Theory of Equal Opportunity (Oxford University Press, 2014)
Mark A. Graber, A New Introduction to American Constitutionalism (Oxford University Press, 2013)
John Mikhail, Elements of Moral Cognition: Rawls' Linguistic Analogy and the Cognitive Science of Moral and Legal Judgment (Cambridge University Press, 2013)
Gerard N. Magliocca, American Founding Son: John Bingham and the Invention of the Fourteenth Amendment (New York University Press, 2013)
Stephen M. Griffin, Long Wars and the Constitution (Harvard University Press, 2013)
Andrew Koppelman, The Tough Luck Constitution and the Assault on Health Care Reform (Oxford University Press, 2013)
James E. Fleming and Linda C. McClain, Ordered Liberty: Rights, Responsibilities, and Virtues (Harvard University Press, 2013)
Balkinization Symposium on Ordered Liberty: Rights, Responsibilities, and Virtues
Andrew Koppelman, Defending American Religious Neutrality (Harvard University Press, 2013)
Brian Z. Tamanaha, Failing Law Schools (University of Chicago Press, 2012)
Sanford Levinson, Framed: America's 51 Constitutions and the Crisis of Governance (Oxford University Press, 2012)
Linda C. McClain and Joanna L. Grossman, Gender Equality: Dimensions of Women's Equal Citizenship (Cambridge University Press, 2012)
Mary Dudziak, War Time: An Idea, Its History, Its Consequences (Oxford University Press, 2012)
Jack M. Balkin, Living Originalism (Harvard University Press, 2011)
Jason Mazzone, Copyfraud and Other Abuses of Intellectual Property Law (Stanford University Press, 2011)
Richard W. Garnett and Andrew Koppelman, First Amendment Stories, (Foundation Press 2011)
Jack M. Balkin, Constitutional Redemption: Political Faith in an Unjust World (Harvard University Press, 2011)
Gerard Magliocca, The Tragedy of William Jennings Bryan: Constitutional Law and the Politics of Backlash (Yale University Press, 2011)
Bernard Harcourt, The Illusion of Free Markets: Punishment and the Myth of Natural Order (Harvard University Press, 2010)
Bruce Ackerman, The Decline and Fall of the American Republic (Harvard University Press, 2010)
Balkinization Symposium on The Decline and Fall of the American Republic
Ian Ayres. Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done (Bantam Books, 2010)
Mark Tushnet, Why the Constitution Matters (Yale University Press 2010)
Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff: Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio (Basic Books, 2010)
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Jack M. Balkin, The Laws of Change: I Ching and the Philosophy of Life (2d Edition, Sybil Creek Press 2009)
Brian Z. Tamanaha, Beyond the Formalist-Realist Divide: The Role of Politics in Judging (Princeton University Press 2009)
Andrew Koppelman and Tobias Barrington Wolff, A Right to Discriminate?: How the Case of Boy Scouts of America v. James Dale Warped the Law of Free Association (Yale University Press 2009)
Jack M. Balkin and Reva B. Siegel, The Constitution in 2020 (Oxford University Press 2009)
Heather K. Gerken, The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix It (Princeton University Press 2009)
Mary Dudziak, Exporting American Dreams: Thurgood Marshall's African Journey (Oxford University Press 2008)
David Luban, Legal Ethics and Human Dignity (Cambridge Univ. Press 2007)
Ian Ayres, Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart (Bantam 2007)
Jack M. Balkin, James Grimmelmann, Eddan Katz, Nimrod Kozlovski, Shlomit Wagman and Tal Zarsky, eds., Cybercrime: Digital Cops in a Networked Environment (N.Y.U. Press 2007)
Jack M. Balkin and Beth Simone Noveck, The State of Play: Law, Games, and Virtual Worlds (N.Y.U. Press 2006)
Andrew Koppelman, Same Sex, Different States: When Same-Sex Marriages Cross State Lines (Yale University Press 2006)
Brian Tamanaha, Law as a Means to an End (Cambridge University Press 2006)
Sanford Levinson, Our Undemocratic Constitution (Oxford University Press 2006)
Mark Graber, Dred Scott and the Problem of Constitutional Evil (Cambridge University Press 2006)
Jack M. Balkin, ed., What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said (N.Y.U. Press 2005)
Sanford Levinson, ed., Torture: A Collection (Oxford University Press 2004)
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