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Balkinization Symposiums: A Continuing List                                                                E-mail: Jack Balkin: jackbalkin at yahoo.com Bruce Ackerman bruce.ackerman at yale.edu Ian Ayres ian.ayres at yale.edu Corey Brettschneider corey_brettschneider at brown.edu Mary Dudziak mary.l.dudziak at emory.edu Joey Fishkin joey.fishkin at gmail.com Heather Gerken heather.gerken at yale.edu Abbe Gluck abbe.gluck at yale.edu Mark Graber mgraber at law.umaryland.edu Stephen Griffin sgriffin at tulane.edu Jonathan Hafetz jonathan.hafetz at shu.edu Jeremy Kessler jkessler at law.columbia.edu Andrew Koppelman akoppelman at law.northwestern.edu Marty Lederman msl46 at law.georgetown.edu Sanford Levinson slevinson at law.utexas.edu David Luban david.luban at gmail.com Gerard Magliocca gmaglioc at iupui.edu Jason Mazzone mazzonej at illinois.edu Linda McClain lmcclain at bu.edu John Mikhail mikhail at law.georgetown.edu Frank Pasquale pasquale.frank at gmail.com Nate Persily npersily at gmail.com Michael Stokes Paulsen michaelstokespaulsen at gmail.com Deborah Pearlstein dpearlst at yu.edu Rick Pildes rick.pildes at nyu.edu David Pozen dpozen at law.columbia.edu Richard Primus raprimus at umich.edu K. Sabeel Rahmansabeel.rahman at brooklaw.edu Alice Ristroph alice.ristroph at shu.edu Neil Siegel siegel at law.duke.edu David Super david.super at law.georgetown.edu Brian Tamanaha btamanaha at wulaw.wustl.edu Nelson Tebbe nelson.tebbe at brooklaw.edu Mark Tushnet mtushnet at law.harvard.edu Adam Winkler winkler at ucla.edu Compendium of posts on Hobby Lobby and related cases The Anti-Torture Memos: Balkinization Posts on Torture, Interrogation, Detention, War Powers, and OLC The Anti-Torture Memos (arranged by topic) Recent Posts A Narrow Path Forward on Reconciliation
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Friday, July 15, 2022
A Narrow Path Forward on Reconciliation
David Super
Last night, Senator
Joe Manchin announced
that he would no longer support including revenue increases and provisions
addressing climate change in a reconciliation package. That meant that those provisions – along with
deficit reduction – would fall out of the bill.
This would leave a health-only package that lowers prescription drug
prices and devote some or all the savings to continuing the American Rescue
Plan Act’s enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act and other
coverage-enhancing measures. Although a far cry from the reconciliation
bill the House passed a year ago, this would still be arguably the most
important piece of non-coronavirus social services legislation in over a
decade.
This morning, Senator
Manchin clarified
that he still would like to move the energy/climate change package but wanted
to await July inflation data before making a final decision to do so. As Congress will be on its August recess when
that data becomes available, this would mean pushing the reconciliation bill
into September. Thus, Senator Manchin is
offering the Democratic leadership the choice between a health-only reconciliation
bill now or the possibility of a reconciliation bill that addresses climate
change and reduces the deficit, as well as the health issues, is September if
July’s inflation report is encouraging. This is, to say
the least, an uncomfortable choice. With
the temporary enhanced premium subsidies expiring
soon, delaying action risks chaos that will burden moderate-income people and
tarnish the ACA in the public’s mind. Delaying
the health package also will give the pharmaceutical industry more time to pick
apart the proposed prescription drug savings.
As more and more Democratic Members find themselves in difficult races
and desperately needing campaign funds – or vulnerable to threats to fund their
opponents – the extremely wealthy pharmaceutical industry will become
increasingly difficult to resist. Yet as climate
change increasingly contributes
to supply-chain problems that fuel inflation, passing on any opportunity to
make a transformational down-payment on switching to renewable energy is a
bitter pill to swallow. In point of fact,
Congress can do both: pass a health-only
reconciliation bill now and another to address climate change and reduce the
deficit in September. This post explains
how that would work. Under the
Congressional Budget Act, the privilege to move legislation under special “reconciliation”
rules – which preclude a filibuster – can only be bestowed by “reconciliation instructions”
included within a congressional budget resolution. Last year, Congress duly passed a budget resolution
for federal fiscal year 2022 that included reconciliation instructions sufficient
to enact the ambitious Build Back Better legislation. Since then, all
its work on reconciliation has been under the auspices of those reconciliation
instructions. The Congressional Budget
Act has provisions preventing Congress – mostly the Senate – from passing
legislation that is would reduce revenues below, or raise spending above,
levels specified in reconciliation instructions. It does not, however, prevent reconciliation from
yielding more revenues or less spending than the reconciliation instructions
envision. Therefore, as the
reconciliation package has shrunk over the past year, the reconciliation instructions
have been no obstacle. If you lose a lot
of weight, you can still wear your old pants – although you may have trouble
holding them up. Therefore, last year’s reconciliation
instructions can easily accommodate a health package, an energy/climate change
package, or both. The Senate
Parliamentarian, however, has interpreted the Congressional Budget Act as
allowing each budget resolution to authorize only one reconciliation bill of
each of the three types permitted: revenues,
spending, and debt limit increases.
Because either a health package or an energy/climate change package would
include both revenue and spending measures, it would use up the reconciliation
opportunity and hence prevent the other package from moving under
reconciliation rules based on last year’s budget resolution. Congress could,
however, pass another budget resolution:
one for federal fiscal year 2023.
Because it had still not used the reconciliation instructions in last
year’s budget resolution, and because passing a budget resolution is an unpleasant
and time-consuming process, Congress did not attempt to do so this Spring. Under this
scenario, Congress would take up and pass a health-only reconciliation bill
this month and then return after Labor Day to pass a new budget resolution for
the upcoming federal fiscal year 2023.
This would contain reconciliation instructions crafted narrowly to
accommodate the anticipated energy/climate change package. That legislation could then be enacted later
in the month before Congress adjourns for the election. This approach does
have significant drawbacks. First, it likely
would put passage of the energy/climate change package off into the second half
of September, after the August inflation data becomes available. Given Senator Manchin’s repeatedly
demonstrated sensitivity to monthly inflation reports, that could cause him to walk
away from a deal he might have been willing to take if July’s CPI report is
favorable. Second, it would
triple Republicans’ opportunities to force Democrats to vote on politically
awkward amendments. Although the
Congressional Budget Act limits Senate debate on both budget resolutions and
reconciliation bills, it allows an unlimited number of amendments. Once the allowable time for debate is
exhausted, this results in an unpleasant process known as “vote-a-rama.” Amendments are brought up in rapid succession,
with proponents and opponents each having just one minute to offer an elevator
pitch, followed immediately by a vote.
This can go on for many, many hours.
Senate rules do
impose fairly strict germaneness constraints on amendments. For example, Republicans could not offer an
amendment to fund former President Trump’s border wall on a reconciliation bill
that only addresses health care. And the
Byrd Rule applies to amendments as much as to the underlying bill: thus, Republicans could not offer amendments
for unfunded upper-income tax cuts (because this would likely violate the
budget resolution’s minimum revenue assumptions) or to change the Immigration
and Nationality Act (because the impact of such changes would not be primarily
fiscal). Still, creative minds can
devise of superficially appealing amendments that meet procedural requirements
but would cause great damage to vulnerable people and institutions. And germaneness is much less helpful in
fending off amendments on a budget resolution, whose topic is the entirety of
the federal budget (even if its reconciliation instructions are much
narrower). In years when the
party moving a budget resolution or reconciliation bill has a more comfortable
margin in the Senate, moderate and endangered senators take turns getting to
cast politically popular votes while their colleagues ensure that the amendment
still fails. This, year, with no votes
to spare and no Republicans likely to break with their leadership, Democrats
need every single vote to defeat destructive amendments in vote-a-rama. (As an aside, part of why attempts to
bludgeon Sen. Manchin into supporting a reconciliation bill he did not like
were foolish is that they did not take into account vote-a-rama: Republicans would surely force him to vote on
amendments to strip the very parts of the bill he has said he thought were
misguided.) Separating the
health and energy/climate change packages and moving the latter under reconciliation
instructions from a second budget resolution would therefore force Senate Democrats,
including Senators Manchin and Sinema as well as vulnerable incumbents up this
Fall, to participate in three vote-a-ramas:
one on each of the reconciliation bills and a particularly wide-open one
on the second budget resolution. And
through all this, Democrats could not afford a single loss, could not license a
single tactical defection. (In theory, Senate
Democrats could accept some particularly popular destructive amendments in
vote-a-rama, go to conference with the House, and drop them there. In practice, it is dubious whether they have
time to go through all the steps that a House-Senate conference entails this
late in the session.) In reality, a
reconciliation package that lowers prescription drug prices, dumps some of
President Trump’s most egregious upper-income tax cuts, and spends the proceeds
on renewable energy, health care access, and deficit reduction would help with
the fight against inflation (in both the short- and the long-term) while
addressing serious, urgent challenges facing our society. Whether we can do both in the current
political environment, however, is very much an open question. @DavidASuper1
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