E-mail:
Jack Balkin: jackbalkin at yahoo.com
Bruce Ackerman bruce.ackerman at yale.edu
Ian Ayres ian.ayres at yale.edu
Corey Brettschneider corey_brettschneider at brown.edu
Mary Dudziak mary.l.dudziak at emory.edu
Joey Fishkin joey.fishkin at gmail.com
Heather Gerken heather.gerken at yale.edu
Abbe Gluck abbe.gluck at yale.edu
Mark Graber mgraber at law.umaryland.edu
Stephen Griffin sgriffin at tulane.edu
Jonathan Hafetz jonathan.hafetz at shu.edu
Jeremy Kessler jkessler at law.columbia.edu
Andrew Koppelman akoppelman at law.northwestern.edu
Marty Lederman msl46 at law.georgetown.edu
Sanford Levinson slevinson at law.utexas.edu
David Luban david.luban at gmail.com
Gerard Magliocca gmaglioc at iupui.edu
Jason Mazzone mazzonej at illinois.edu
Linda McClain lmcclain at bu.edu
John Mikhail mikhail at law.georgetown.edu
Frank Pasquale pasquale.frank at gmail.com
Nate Persily npersily at gmail.com
Michael Stokes Paulsen michaelstokespaulsen at gmail.com
Deborah Pearlstein dpearlst at yu.edu
Rick Pildes rick.pildes at nyu.edu
David Pozen dpozen at law.columbia.edu
Richard Primus raprimus at umich.edu
K. Sabeel Rahmansabeel.rahman at brooklaw.edu
Alice Ristroph alice.ristroph at shu.edu
Neil Siegel siegel at law.duke.edu
David Super david.super at law.georgetown.edu
Brian Tamanaha btamanaha at wulaw.wustl.edu
Nelson Tebbe nelson.tebbe at brooklaw.edu
Mark Tushnet mtushnet at law.harvard.edu
Adam Winkler winkler at ucla.edu
Currently,
only nine states and the District of Columbia (home
to 21 percent of the population) send ballots to all registered voters. Out of the
remaining states, 34 states (56 percent) allow absentee voting upon request while
seven states (22 percent) require voters to vote in person at a polling place
unless they have an excuse (beyond COVID-19).
A closer
look at the jurisdictions that have ‘universal’ mail-in voting shows that 9 of
the 10 have electorates that are so solidly in favor of one presidential candidate
that it beggars belief that voting fraud could impact the outcome in these
states. In these nine jurisdictions—Vermont,
California, New Jersey, Colorado, Hawaii, Utah, Washington, Oregon and the
District of Columbia—the
leading candidate holds more than a 10 percent predicted vote share:
According
to FiveThirtyEight’s election modelling, Nevada is the only universal mail-in
voting state that is up for grabs with Biden holding “only” a 6.2 percent lead in
the weighted polling average. But Nevada
casts only 6 electoral votes and is estimated to have only a 3.5 percent chance
of deciding the election, that is, of being pivotal to determining the winning
candidate.
Nevada is
the only universal mail-in voting state where massive voting fraud could have
any possibility of altering the identity of the state winner and Nevada has so
few electoral votes that contesting that state’s electors is unlikely to impact
the identity of the electoral college winner. To be clear, when we say, “that
massive voter has any possibility,” we are trying to give credence to Trumps
concern. It is also important to note that universal mail-in voting has not
been linked to any kind of voter fraud. However, even if we were to grant
Trump the first part of this argument that unrequested mail ballots are more
susceptible to fraud, any such fraud is unlikely to cause a material difference
in the outcome of the election. Even if Pence refuses to accept Nevada’s
electoral returns “on the grounds that the underlying
vote count was generated in an illegitimate fashion,” Biden would still likely retain
a majority of electoral college electors.
Although
Trump has publicly mostly railed against these nine states, his campaign has
filed multiple lawsuits in states that are expanding vote
by mail including New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and
Montana. The campaign also filed a motion against residents of the Navajo
Nation in Arizona who are suing the state over a policy requiring ballots be
received before 7pm on election day. These states are very important for the election.
For instance, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona cumulatively have a 36
percent chance of deciding the election. The Supreme Court also recently upheld South Carolina’s witness-signature
requirement which signals how it may rule on future cases around state vote by
mail mandates.
These
lawsuits have already greatly hobbled Democrat plans to encourage mail-in
voting. Officials are urging voters to vote-in person in key swing states as
they are worried that mail-in votes might not be counted. This is not only bad news
from a public health standpoint but also can lead to reduced voter turnout if
voter’s fear their votes are not being counted.
We have
reason to be concerned that these lawsuits may impact the election by making it
harder for people to cast their votes in battle ground states. In contrast,
President Trump’s rhetorical efforts to claim that any loss of his would be due
to practice of ten jurisdictions to automatically mail ballots to all voters
does not withstand scrutiny.