Balkinization: A Ghost Majority

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# posted by

Joe : 8:33 PM

Well, this issue must have came up at some point over the years too.

How did it work then?

# posted by

Joe : 8:34 PM

Just a minor point: Evidence from Italy, where they tested an entire town regardless of symptoms, is that about 80% of the infected are asymptomatic. (Which, by the way, is why a policy of only testing people showing symptoms is madness. It flatly guarantees that you'll miss most of the carriers.) IOW, the odds are that Paul didn't infect the Senate, but instead one or more of the Senators or Representatives are walking around contagious but feeling fine, and infected him.

That aside, McConnell is still the leader of the majority so long as those Senators still retain their seats: The majority leader is not determined by counting heads among those who happen to be present, or else you'd select a new majority leader every time people walked in and out of the chamber.

At some point, when it appears that a significant number of those members will never be returning, it would be appropriate to hold such a vote.

# posted by

Brett : 10:47 PM

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# posted by

Joe : 11:11 PM

It is not like only those that have shown symptoms are tested. Thus, those known to have been exposed also have been tested. It also is a matter of limited tests and ability to give them/handle those so given. Thus, choices are made. More tests would allow the statistically likely to also be at risk to be tested as well. But, once you are getting to whole towns etc., it is harder to do that with the tests available.

The summary of the experiment also suggests Paul still could have infected people too, even if others we do not know about also have been a problem. It would also probably involve various variables we don't know the specifics about.

Yes, the majority leader doesn't lose that status merely because the minority might at that specific time has more people on the floor. Though the majority surely will try to prevent that. But, if there is for some extended period that occurs, the "ghost majority" problem increases. Some senators don't resign but can be unable to serve for extended periods of time. It is problematic if a majority relies on them.

The change of the rule would help clarify the situation.

# posted by

Joe : 11:20 PM

Brett: 80% of the infected are asymptomatic

Precisely. Only about a fifth of the infected ever experience substantial symptoms and only about 1% (probably less if you assume testing is not catching many asymptomatic infected) made up of easily identifiable groups (elderly and those already suffering from respiratory illnesses or suppressed immune systems) die.

None of these Congress critters are incapacitated. Wash your hands, put on a damned mask and vote.

Next, protect the vulnerable, treat the ill and reopen the economy.

The previous 18 versions of this illness have never before caused an economic depression and our government has never before caused an economic depression fighting what amounts to a severe cold.

Stop the madness.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 8:43 AM

As per Brett and Bart's comments:

The Senate has 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and 2 Independents, who both caucus with the Democrats. The average age of Members of the House at the beginning of the 115th Congress was 57.8 years; of Senators, 61.8 years, among the oldest in U.S. history...

So if the advice is taken, and considering the known ineffectiveness of those masks, even if they can rip them off the faces of medical personnel, we could expect to lose maybe 10 of the Senate, and 20-30 of the House.

I suggest a hug-and-kiss fest for the GOP caucuses and a wait for a couple of weeks to let matters take their course.

Frankly, going virtual, as colleges and universities have done, makes a lot more sense. Most of what goes on in actual operation is kabuki theater anyway.

# posted by

C2H5OH : 9:54 AM

The "kabuki theater" thing is repeatedly referenced, often cynically.

But, it's part of the process. This happens in regular life too. Like yesterday basically a bunch of senators blathered on the floor of the Senate. That is what it looked like much of the time. But, that is part of the process.

Let's say there is a jury deliberation. Part of the process is jurors making their opinions known, at times it seems like individual jurors are just venting or something. Actual "deliberation" often doesn't happen much. Or, when a couple discusses things. "Discussion" here can be one or the other side venting and just talking aloud without much discussion. But, in some fashion, it is helpful and necessary.

The same with hearings. A lot of cynical talk about kabuki theater. But, not only is the engagement of the nominee with the members of some value -- we do get some sense of the person and some issues are dealt with -- the engagement is part of the process. Just being in room and engaging with each other is too. You lose something when a person is not physically there.

But, something being helpful is not essential if on balance we get a worse result.

# posted by

Joe : 10:28 AM

Joe, you did notice I said "mostly". But I'll cop to being cynical.

And as for something being lost when physical presence goes away -- yes, among others the risk of infection from a contagion...

My experience (which includes distance learning and "virtual training") indicates that the loss is almost completely temporary. One learns rather quickly to pick up cues that make up for it. And my experience is via older "virtual" means. Today the experience can be mad much more realistic.

# posted by

C2H5OH : 10:40 AM

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# posted by

Bartbuster : 10:56 AM

The reply to my comment is fine enough and anyway I did say it was a balance. So, that would include voicing something in support of what is seen as mostly kabuki. The balance, as noted, includes the risk of physical presence. I do think physical presence has value all the same even if virtual means can do a lot of the work.

Diane Klein over at Dorf on Law discusses virtual learning in a series of recent posts. [See, e.g., " Making the All-Online Transition Across the Digital Divide."] In reply to one comment, she makes clear to note she is not saying physical presence lacks value.

This same thing shows up in various contexts, surely to varying degrees. The lack of physical presence, e.g., is more important for visitors to prisoners and those serving overseas than to corporate meeting rooms, e.g.

# posted by

Joe : 11:32 AM

My guess is that physical presence matters in the informal settings where much negotiation takes place - hallway conversations and the like. I doubt it matters much at all in formal floor debate, which is mostly for the cameras anyway. Hearings are in between.

# posted by

byomtov : 12:19 PM

Joe, as to "balance", the precise weighting in this case obviously depends on who is sitting on the end of the scale versus who is doing the weighing. Those who are not at risk, sitting in front of their monitors will obviously weight the scales differently from those who are sitting next to someone coughing into their face mask.

We must remember that as far as virtual connections are concerned, we are in its infancy. Already we skype, we chat (virtually), and we do many other things without human contact. I don't believe we are ever going to get as far as some science fiction stories have proposed -- but given the number of people in the world, the interconnectedness of all things today, and the cost of physically transporting bodies around, things are obviously going to trend much more virtual as time goes by.

Yes, people have a need for human contact -- but you might ask a prisoner whether they'd rather have weekly person-to-person visits or daily virtual ones.

# posted by

C2H5OH : 12:23 PM

The previous 18 versions of this illness have never before caused an economic depression and our government has never before caused an economic depression fighting what amounts to a severe cold.

Stop the madness.
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 8:43 AM

Why do you keep saying stupid shit like this? It’s clearly not just a severe cold. Millions will die if your moronic “advice” is followed.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 12:44 PM

bb: Why do you keep staying stupid shit like this? It’s clearly not just a severe cold. Millions will die if your moronic “advice” is followed.

Are you sure it wouldn't be hundreds of millions, just like the previous 18 versions of this illness?

Stop the madness.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 12:45 PM

C2H5OH said...Joe, as to "balance", the precise weighting in this case obviously depends on who is sitting on the end of the scale versus who is doing the weighing. Those who are not at risk, sitting in front of their monitors will obviously weight the scales differently from those who are sitting next to someone coughing into their face mask.

Agreed.

There are over 340 million of the former, millions of whom have been unemployed by government shutdown decrees.

There are maybe a few thousand of the latter.

I would say the balance of equities unquestionably go to the former.

Stop the madness.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 12:50 PM

Are you sure it wouldn't be hundreds of millions, just like the previous 18 versions of this illness?

Stop the madness.
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 12:45 PM

Blankshot, modeling the spread and mortality of diseases like this isn’t that complicated. There is almost certainly a very accurate and well tested algorithm already available. If the experts say that 4 million people are going to die, then you can be pretty sure that close to 4 million are going to die. In a fair and just world that would mostly be Faux News viewers, and I’d be fine with that. But you morons are going to take too many of the rest of us with you. Sit down and shut the fuck up.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 1:26 PM

Given Bart's previous assertions that COVID-19 is far less deadly than the flu (it's not: it's 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, and much deadlier than the H1N1 version) and the fact hat several thousand Americans have already died, and many more have been hospitalized, I would suggest taking any predictions on his part with massive amounts of salt.

# posted by

C2H5OH : 1:35 PM

"Yes, people have a need for human contact -- but you might ask a prisoner whether they'd rather have weekly person-to-person visits or daily virtual ones."

Some would prefer a weekly person to person visit even if they would have to trade their daily virtual ones. If they even get daily under the rules of institutions that provide that (New York has reached out to provide virtual hook-ups, for one).

I appreciate the responses.

# posted by

Joe : 1:54 PM

bb:

The COVID 19 models are all over the place in their projections, but no credible model is projecting US COVID 19 deaths in the millions.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 2:06 PM

This comment has been removed by the author.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 2:08 PM

C2H5OH said...Given Bart's previous assertions that COVID-19 is far less deadly than the flu (it's not: it's 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, and much deadlier than the H1N1 version) and the fact hat several thousand Americans have already die

Please consult the CDC before you post nonsense like this. The current CDC figures for the US are: "Total cases: 44,183 Total deaths: 544"

So far, this flu season has killed 30,000+.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 2:15 PM

Remember, Bircher Bart is the fellow that donned his self-proclaimed armaments expert hat and argued there were WMD's in Iraq long after everyone else beating that drum conceded it was not the case; donned his self proclaimed social scientist hat and guaranteed a Romney Presidency; donned his self proclaimed social scientist hat and argued there was no conceivable reason anyone could think asking a citizenship question could lower response rates; donned his self-proclaimed political scientist hat to proclaim that there's no distinction between 'progressive' or 'socialist' nations (in which he includes the US, Scandinavia, Europe, etc.,) and 'totalitarian' or 'fascist' nations; donned his self-proclaimed constitutional scholar hat and argued that the word 'person' in Section 1 of the 14th Amendment magically changed its meaning in Section 2 of the same; put on his ethicist hat and declared he'd support Trump even if he knew Trump murdered someone; donned his prosecutorial hat to ludicrously argue that a US attorney appointed by and who donated to Trump was engaging in politically motivated prosecutions of Trump associates to hurt Trump; who put on, well, his normal person with eyes hat and argued, *after the release of the WH quasi-transcript,* that there was 'zero evidence' Trump ever asked for the Bidens to be investigated on the 'perfect phone call,; etc.,

Now our country lawyer dons his epidemiologist hat and is pontificating on that subject.

This is not a serious man, and everything he says on this subject (and others) should be suspected of being un-serious.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 2:29 PM

"The majority leader is not determined by counting heads among those who happen to be present, or else you'd select a new majority leader every time people walked in and out of the chamber."

What a terrible conflation, based on Bircher Brett's usually strange thinking in distinction making. His argument is akin to saying 'the 25th Amendment can't be invoked when the President undergoes a surgery where he's unconscious for several days because otherwise whenever he takes a nap it should be!'

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 2:34 PM

"It’s clearly not just a severe cold. "

As much as someone with his intellectual and moral lack of integrity you can see he's already starting to back down (he mocked it as 'the sniffles' early, now it's been promoted to 'severe cold.').

His panic is palpable as his favorite fascist's flatfootedness is further demonstrated daily.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 2:37 PM

Mr. W:

Two lies and three libels in two lines.

Your writing is becoming more concise.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 2:45 PM

Bart's statistics are, of course, a couple of days old. Even the most up-to-date numbers are a day old, but they are substantially higher than his (the official number is approaching a thousand).

When keeping track of these things, we must remember that someone who dies of pneumonia is not automatically assumed to have died of COVID-19, nor is someone critically ill automatically going to be tested for it, since that makes no difference to the treatment, and considering the shortage of tests, which means that there is no test administered in many cases. Thus, the actual number who have died of this disease is significantly greater than the statistics would indicate.

# posted by

C2H5OH : 2:46 PM

Bart DePalma2:06 PM
bb:

The COVID 19 models are all over the place in their projections, but no credible model is projecting US COVID 19 deaths in the millions.

I already posted a link to a credible prediction. The problem is that you wouldn't recognize credible if it walked up and kicked you in the groin.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 2:56 PM

Every line I wrote is evidenced in the archives here.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 3:02 PM

C2H5OH said...Bart's statistics are, of course, a couple of days old. Even the most up-to-date numbers are a day old, but they are substantially higher than his (the official number is approaching a thousand).

Try copied directly off the CDC site two minutes before I posted them. Tellingly, you do not do the same for your non-CDC "official number." Instead, you start tap dancing to suggest the "unofficial" CDC is wrong.

When keeping track of these things, we must remember that someone who dies of pneumonia is not automatically assumed to have died of COVID-19, nor is someone critically ill automatically going to be tested for it, since that makes no difference to the treatment, and considering the shortage of tests, which means that there is no test administered in many cases.

Given pneumonia makes you more likely to die from COVID 19 and is often a secondary illness to other respiratory ailments, it is possible some number of deaths are being counted as pneumonia rather than COVID 19. However, a hospital is very likely to test you if you come in with a fever and a cough because they do not want COVID 19 spreading around the facility.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 3:13 PM

BD: The COVID 19 models are all over the place in their projections, but no credible model is projecting US COVID 19 deaths in the millions.

bb: I already posted a link to a credible prediction.

If you were the one who previously cited to a back of a napkin "projection" offered offered by a single presenter at a conference sponsored by the American Hospital Association, this claim which no one else is supporting was not the product of a model. The presenter merely assumed the number of infections would double every week for 2-3 months and kill a high single digit percentage of the infected.

If not, feel free to offer a link to your "model."

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 3:20 PM

If it makes you feel much better, you can consider my comment as to number a few days in the future. Remember, over the months' long H1N1 pandemic you like to hearken back to, 12,469 people died. As even by the statistic you quote, 544 people have died in a little more than one week (and, we note, in the early stage, before the virus had spread across the country), even a conservative estimate is that a lot more than 12,000 people will die of this.

Based on the curves, I would say we'll likely pass that grim milestone in a week or so. If not less.

But to consider this virus much less serious than H1N1, or the seasonal flu, is ridiculous.

# posted by

C2H5OH : 3:26 PM

C2H5OH said...If it makes you feel much better, you can consider my comment as to number a few days in the future. Remember, over the months' long H1N1 pandemic you like to hearken back to, 12,469 people died. As even by the statistic you quote, 544 people have died in a little more than one week (and, we note, in the early stage, before the virus had spread across the country), even a conservative estimate is that a lot more than 12,000 people will die of this.

The total death count started a couple months ago when the outbreak started, not just a single week.

Here is a more extensive copy from CDC:

Total cases: 44,183
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020

If COVID 19 fades with summer, then this cycle should be over fairly soon.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 4:04 PM

If you want to panic, then consider the possibility Joe Biden is placed in charge of an actual pandemic, nevertheless nuclear weapons. Biden attempted to offer shadow addresses to the nation about COVID to counter the daily Trump briefings. Here is what happened when Biden's teleprompter froze.

Are you Democrats actually going to nominate this dementia afflicted old man?

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 4:12 PM

If not, feel free to offer a link to your "model."
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 3:20 PM

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

# posted by

Bartbuster : 4:25 PM

Are you Democrats actually going to nominate this dementia afflicted old man?
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 4:12 PM

For every video of Biden looking old there are 10 of Trump looking much worse.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 4:29 PM

bb:

Go compare the daily Trump COVID 19 briefings, which are raising his approval polling across the board, with Biden's cringe worthy, dementia addled imitation to which I linked above.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 4:52 PM

Go compare the daily Trump COVID 19 briefings, which are raising his approval polling across the board, with Biden's cringe worthy, dementia addled imitation to which I linked above.
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 4:52 PM

Trump’s “briefings” are cringe inducing nonsense.

Now read the study I posted, you halfwit.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 4:58 PM

bb:

The IC model is propaganda, wildly overstating the consequences of doing nothing, then claiming simple case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of >70s will knock back the death rate by 3/4, to a still insane half million.

None of the previous 18 strains of this virus were nor is COVID 19 now remotely this virulent.

This model has COVID 19 doing nothing from January until May, then exploding precisely when it should be fading in the summer like most respiratory illnesses.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 7:02 PM

The IC model is propaganda,
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 7:02 PM

I’m sure your paper debunking it is due any day.

But seriously.

You’re not capable of determining whether or not that simulation is accurate. You have neither the training or the intellectual capacity. And since there don’t seem to be any scientific studies supporting your bullshit, we’re going with the actual scientists.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 7:08 PM

Lol, it's clear as Mark said the 'dementia' attacks on Biden are now part of a pathetic ploy by the Right to try to hang what's an obvious flaw in their candidate in part on the opposition. Here's Trump *literally reading from a piece of paper,* you can count the number of complete sentences that couldn't be written by a fourth grader on one hand. He literally can't stick with a sentence to complete it without his mind wandering...

"oday I can announce further steps to expand testing capacity. We’re working with several groups to determine if the self-swab — a much easier process than the current process that’s not very nice to do, I can tell you, because I did it. But we have a current process that’s a little bit difficult.

If you haven’t done — the groups are working on determining if a self-swab by an individual is as effective as the other. The other is very effective, very accurate. But we’re going to see if we can do a self-swab, which is — would be a lot more popular, I can tell you that. So — and that would be administered also by a health official, but it would be a lot easier to do.

The — the fact is that the health professionals would — it would free — it would free up a lot. Let me just say, the self-swab is what it is: It’s a self-swab; you do it yourself. The other has to be issued by a health professional, and it’s something that is quite difficult. And we think it’s working out for the self-swab. And if it would test positive, the people would go and they would do what they have to do. But we think that’s probably working out."

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 7:47 PM

"You’re not capable of determining whether or not that simulation is accurate. You have neither the training or the intellectual capacity. "

Exactly. Even if Bircher Bart didn't have a long demonstrable record of saying foolishly wrong or deranged things here, any man who acted like they knew more about epidemiology than most trained, working epidemiologists, more about climatalogy than most trained, working climate scientists, more about economics than most trained, working economists, more about political science than most trained, working political scientists, more about armaments than most experts trained in that field, and now making armchair psychiatric evaluations, all without any demonstrable training, experience or educational achievements in any of those areas, well, you'd have to assume that man was a lunatic. No reasonable man acts like that. No serious man. This is not a serious man.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 7:54 PM

The bullshit spewing from Bart seems even more unhinged than usual lately.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 8:29 PM

I just talked to someone I know who is a doctor in NY. They are about to be overwhelmed by patients with the sniffles. His wife, who has not worked as a nurse for 20 years, was contacted because she maintained her license. He thinks that they want to use her as cannon fodder because the people with current training will all be needed for patient care.

But I'm sure that this sort of thing happens for the sniffles all the time.

Bart, you're a dangerous fucking moron.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 11:06 PM

Also, if you're hoping that the malaria drug that they're pimping on Faux News is going to save the day, stop. I know an ER nurse here in Florida who says that they tried it on a patient. He proceeded to get much worse.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 11:30 PM

bb: You’re not capable of determining whether or not that simulation is accurate.

Never once said I was.

Actually, no one is. As I noted before, the projections are all over the place because they are guessing the infection and death rates.

Your IC model has facial problems which are contrary to the information we do have. Unsurprisingly, you are not defending the IC assumptions, but rather attacking the critic.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 8:53 AM

Your IC model has facial problems which are contrary to the information we do have. Unsurprisingly, you are not defending the IC assumptions, but rather attacking the critic.
# posted by Blogger Bart DePalma : 8:53 AM

The critic has absolutely no idea what he’s talking about. But if you think the study is wrong, you should come up with your own study to support the asinine crap that you keep posting. Until that happens we’re going with the best information available.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 9:44 AM

bb:

I know this is a novel concept for progressives, but try thinking for yourself.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 10:00 AM

Lol

You’re a fucking moron.

# posted by

Bartbuster : 10:02 AM

A person who actually thinks for himself would think that he can't possibly know the nuances and content of many fields and as a matter of induction if, when he tries to do so anyway and he's coming to conclusions at odds with those with far more training, experience and accomplishment in those fields, then he's likely wrong not everyone else. Only arrogant, narcissistic lunatics make that bet the other way.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 12:29 PM

By the way-conspiracy theorizing and being an arrogant narcissistic lunatic greatly overlap, because a key component of conspiracy theory is you, special, special you, know something that all of the *they,* even those with far more training, experience and accomplishment than you (they're the 'establishment' that's 'hiding' the truth) do not, .

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 12:31 PM

Oh, there is another alternative to an arrogant, narcissistic lunatic in that situation, namely someone deliberately and dishonestly engaged in propaganda.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 12:32 PM

There is talk that the Senate will recess after the bill being crafted now.

This is probably a bad idea but if they do and disperse, the possible problem if the virus makes them coming back into session in D.C. difficult also emphasizes the concerns here. A related concern was flagged with 9/11 and the possibility of voting elsewhere.

Congress during the Revolutionary War was a roving body that met various places. The District Clause set up a mechanism to protect one set secure location. Even then, yellow fever made D.C. dangerous at times, the Supreme Court itself delaying session twice.

The concept of virtual immediate presence (proxies would be possible) in 1787 was unlikely in anyone's mind, even as a matter of fiction (travel to the moon was imagined in ancient times & people imagined spiritual beings etc. communicating). But, it would be possible in the 19th Century with telegraph technology.

More so in the 20th Century with phones. Anyway, one use of remote voting:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuela-congress-allows-remote-voting-to-thwart-government-pressure-on-opposition-idUSKBN1YL2FJ

# posted by

Joe : 2:09 PM