Balkinization: Mea Culpa

Comments:

Don't feel so bad. I, a Trump supporter, was also expecting him to lose.

It's the pollsters who really have some explaining to do. Don't buy it when they claim sampling error. They were seriously wrong about something important.

Now, will all the celebrities who said they'd flee the country if this happened please make good on that promise?

# posted by

Brett : 12:28 AM

A mistake often made is for people to pay any attention to national polls. What matters is state by state, and the day before the election RCP averages there had Trump with a no toss up tally of 241 with Clinton having FL but trending down.

Back in the debates you might recall that I said that Trump did a really good job in pushing the trade issue and targeting the message to MidWestern states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, areas really impacted by that issue. Trade was the perfect wedge issue-it was lying around just waiting for a GOP candidate bold enough to shrug off the party's free trade orthodoxy and use it. Trump did.

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 8:02 AM

There were plenty of us saying that Ginsburg should have retired after the 2012 election. It's ironic indeed that there's a very good chance, based on her life expectancy, that her legacy now will be the reversal of Roe v. Wade. Among many other bad things.

# posted by

Mark Field : 8:57 AM

Mark, Pride goeth before the fall (well, in this case, of others).

# posted by

Mista Whiskas : 9:10 AM

A "told you so" to a woman who spent her whole professional life advancing the interests in this country. This is one of the first things put out there.

She's thinking, maybe as she prepares for this morning's oral argument, that she has to be healthy for at least another four years.

Anyway, prediction-wise wrong, but you were right to be Never Trump. Let's see how those who were not and those who were act in Congress.

# posted by

Joe : 9:23 AM

Gerard:

No worries.

As I know from my mistaken prediction of the 2012 election, predicting the future is, at best, an educated crap shoot.

# posted by

Bart DePalma : 9:41 AM

A "told you so" to a woman who spent her whole professional life advancing the interests in this country. This is one of the first things put out there.

In 2012 she put her own personal interests over those of the country.

# posted by

Mark Field : 10:05 AM

Let those without sin throw the first stone.

Or, at least let the first stones not be for her. A person who worked all her professional life to advance the good of this country. Part of that life was decades in federal courts where "for good behavior" is the test in part to further a system in which such political sentiments will be lessened.

So many others "put their own personal interests over those of the country" and did less to serve its interests. So, no, RBG is not the person I'm going to tell "I told you so" today, in part since it's punching her when she's already down.

# posted by

Joe : 11:20 AM

Every Trump voter put his or her own interests above those of the country. So did lots of R office holders like McConnell and Ryan. They deserve even more criticism than RBG. But the fact that others did worse doesn't absolve her; that sets the bar much too low.

We need to recognize the ones who really stood up: both Obamas, for example. Journalists like David Farenthold and Daniel Dale. R intellectuals like Dan Drezner, Max Boot, or Ana Navarro.

RBG did a lot of good in her life. Maybe she'll live long enough to avoid the worst effects of her decision not to retire. But if she doesn't, she has to bear the judgment for that.

# posted by

Mark Field : 11:48 AM

A few thoughts:

I commend Gerard for confessing error and forswearing future political predictions. We should leave political predictions to the experts, who clearly have no idea what they are talking about either.

I look forward to this blog returning to the problem of executive overreach and the need for meaningful checks on presidential power. Jack and Sandy might want to review their impeachment materials just in case.

I appreciate Mark Tushnet's generous offer of surrender terms, but I am going to have to pass for the moment.

# posted by

mls : 1:04 PM

I think I shall refrain from making political predictions from now on and stick to what I actually know something about.

I honestly think a lot of people should follow this advice. There are way too many political scientists, pollsters, data driven journalists, and others who think they can do punditry. It turns out punditry is really hard, and all those people would apply their talents much better by describing what is happening rather than making predictions.

# posted by

Dilan : 1:37 PM