Will the United States survive the 2016 election (continuing)

Sandy Levinson

UPDATE:  I think it's probably correct, as suggested by some of the discussants, that it may be excessive to suggest that tall of the "majority" of those who did not vote for Clinton--i.e., the sum of Trump, Johnson, and Stein voters--will regard her as "illegitimate."  (I'm not willing, incidentally, to make the same concession with regard to those who do not vote for Trump:  i.e., I do suspect that a majority of the country will regard a Trump presidency as illegitimate.)  But I'm not sure that's such a major concession.  The key question is what percentage of rabid Trump supporters--whether or not we wish to label them "deplorable" (more on that below)--will regard her as illegitimate.  And I continue to believe that the number/percentage will be high enough to threaten basic political stability, especially given the threats.hints of violence encouraged by Governor Biven and the sociopathic candidate for the presidency.  After all, there's no reason at all to believe that a "majority" of those living in the colonies believed that King George III was an illegitimate tyrant even in 1776, nor a "majority" who supported the Bolsheviks over the Mensheviks, and we know that Hitler did not receive the support of a majority of Germans when he gained control of the German government in 1933.  Great events (or catastrophes) often, perhaps usually, take place because of intense minorities who are "mad as hell and aren't going to take it any more," i.e, those whipped up by the sociopath.  The irony/paradox is that the majority who would properly regard a Trump presidency as illegitimate are not inclined to engage in violence.  That may or may not be thought to be a compliment.  It is the right, over the past quarter century, that has blown up federal buildings, occupied federal lands, and organized "militias" to overthrow what they deem to be an oppressive state.  The American left, presuming it really exists as an organized entity, is by and large satisfied with engaging in dramatic marches and expressions of woe rather than genuine political organization.  And, of course, unlike the Right, some of whose members, including Texas Governor Greg Abbott, are willing to connect the dots and suggest significant constitutional reform (from their perspective), the so-called left continues to engage in Constitution-worship and resolute unwillingness to connect any dots (see, e.g., the Sanders campaign and its ultimate cult of personality).

So let me suggest the following as almost certain realities of American politics come January:  Let's begin with the absolute worst case:  A Trump "victory" with a minority of the popular vote and a slim majority of the electoral vote (thanks to voter suppression in North Carolina, Wisconsin, or Texas, to name the three most likely suspects).  Result:  a sullen majority that refuses to accept him as a legitimate president and will support every effort to limit his presidency, beginning with a resolute unwillingness to confirm any judicial appointees (for starters) and suggesting impeachment the first time he jaywalks.  If a Trump victory is coupled with Republican control of Congress, then Democrats should exercise the filibuster (until, of course, the Republicans eliminate it), though it will also be interesting to see how craven Republican senators (or Speaker Ryan) will be in submitting themselves to the "leadership" of an ignorant sociopath.  And, who knows, perhaps there will be secessionist movements in Pacifica or New England, unlikely as that seems today.  A Clinton victory with a minority of the popular vote and a close electoral vote would, as suggested above, not necessarily mean that a majority of the country would regard her as illegitimate.  But what if, say, "only" 25% of the country thought her to be illegitimate (because, after all, they believe she is "evil" (to quote an Iowa Republican) and deserves to be in jail.  This 25% is not equally distributed throughout the country, but tends to cluster particularly in White Dixie and other similar enclaves (including the "Alabama" portion of Pennsylvania).  Will they be merely sullen, or will some members of this group feel empowered to exercise their Second Amendment rights?  Moreover, of course, there is the question of whether Republican members of Congress can possibly be seen to "collaborate" (I use this term advisedly) with Clinton with regard to achieving any of her policy goals, whatever their (i.e., the Republican senators and representatives) private views about the merits of some of these goals.  They will, presumably be terrified of being primaried.

Ao the question remains, why doesn't this likely consequence count as a genuine constitutional--and existential--crisis for the United States (and thus, in a deep sense, the entire world)?  Can any reasonable person believe that our political system is working well or iis likely to get genuinely better in the foreseeable future (even if, as I would of course hope to be the case, Clinton smashes the sociopath and carries the House and Senate with her).

Finally, a comment about the "deplorable":  I do think it absolutely deplorable that anyone would vote for the sociopath.  But, as noted in my original post, I don't think that everyone doing so is a "deplorable person."  Marxists developed a whole theory of "false consciousness" to explain how potentially admirable people could be misled by  ideological structures to misunderstand their actual situation and thus vote against their own best interests.  I think this explains much of the support going to the sociopath from relatively uneducated white members of the working class.  They have indeed been sold down the river by political elites over the past several decades and have eery reason to feel angry.  It is, therefore, not so surprising that they are falling victim to a skilled demagogue, sociopath though he may be.  One might say much the same, though, of some of the Germans in the early '30s who voted for the Nazis.  Whether or not they were "deplorable people," they made a completely deplorable decision with world-historical consequences.

So who are the truly "deplorable people"?  The answer is easy:  At the head of the list are Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, who have chosen to be "useful idiots" for their sociopathic candidate even though it is literally inconceivable that they believe him fit to be President of the United States.  Both deserve to roast in hell, along with eery other opportunist--think of Kelly Ayotte--who coyly says that a vote for the sociopath doesn't count as an "endorsement."  They are "deplorable" in every sense, unlike, say, Ted Cruz or, even mores, John Katich.  Needless to say, I admire even more those Republicans who are endorsing the eminently capable former senator and secretary of state to be President, but I am nevertheless willing to give at least half a "Hamilton award" to Cruz, Katich,Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and governors Baker of Massachusetts and Gov. Hogan of Maryland, all of whom have indicated they have no intention of voting for the sociopath.  (The "Hamilton awards" are based on Hamilton's willingness to endorse his bitter enemy Thomas Jefferson over Aaron Burr because he regarded Jefferson as a man of principle and Burr as a "voluptuary" wholly without principles and any sense of public virtue.)  Full Hamiltons go to those Republicans who are willing to bit the bullet and recognize that the only sure way to stop the sociopath is to vote for Clinton.

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OK, since my last missive, the Republican Governor of Kentucky has basically suggested/threatened violence should Hillary Clinton win the election.  And the sociopath who is the Republican candidate for President has suggested that Hillary Clinton no longer receive armed protection, because, as he typically lies, he suggests that Clinton believes in universal disarmament.  (That's especially ironic given that many liberals are justifiably concerned that she is too quick to support armed intervention.)

Also, polling indicates not only a tightening race, but, just as importantly, the overwhelming likelihood, unless the Johnson candidacy utterly collapses, that the winner on November 8 will not, unlike Barack Obama, receive a majority of the popular vote (or, perhaps, even a near majority, as did Bill Clinton in 1996. ) So this means, I suggest that a majority of the country, on November 9, whatever the result, is likely to believe that the next President of the United States is illegitimate. [SEE ABOVE FOR MY MODIFICATION OF THIS VIEW.]   That is certainly my view regarding the narcissistic sociopath.  That anyone believes he is actually capable of being president I find deplorable.  It is nothing less than putting the lives of all of us, including, obviously, our children and grandchildren, in the hands of a blithering incompetent, but with all of the legal powers of the President.  I want no part of a country that would have him as our president.  Thus my repeated suggestions, crazy as they no doubt sound to many readers, for secession or even a military coup in order to prevent Trump from taking office.  But, of course, if Clinton wins, as I still expect will be the case, it is equally impossible to imagine anything resembling a gracious concession from the sociopath, who will encourage the deplorable segment of his supporters--and not all of them are "deplorable," though all of them are making a deplorable decision--to resist the criminal Clinton, who should, according to them, be locked up, by any means possible, including, as Governor Bevin suggests, taking up arms.  I think it is safe to say that this will be unprecedented, save perhaps for 1860, not a happy precedent.

If either the sociopath or Secretary Clinton wins a narrow electoral vote victory, then I expect each side to put pressure on given electors to be "faithless."  Perhaps Clinton will feel politically estopped from doing that, but I sure as hell hope that is not the case withf her supporters.  It should be made crystal clear that his election is unacceptable.  [ADDITION:  If this means public bargaining between Clinton and Republicans concerning, say, cabinet appointments or other techniques to achieve a "government of national unity," so be it.)  But, of course, I fully expect Trump, backed by Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, to make the same arguments.

I won't even mention the various permutations and combinations re the House and the Senate.  What if the Senate ends up as a tie, for example?

In any event, I couldn't disagree more with those who are adopting a relatively complacent view of the election.  We are facing a true existential crisis far more serious, frankly, that almost anything that a terrorist could inflict on the US.

It is currently the case that only about 25% of the public believe the country is moving in the right direction.  It is also the case that Congress has the "approval" of approximately 10% of the population, with 71% "disapproving."  For the first time in the history of polling, the Supreme Court is disapproved of by a majority of the population.  Barack Obama, interestingly enough, does have the approval of a (bare) majority, but, obviously, he's not on the ballot.

As Oliver Wendell Holmes Senior noted in "The One Hoss Shay," thought to be an allegory about the collapse of Calvinism in the U.S., established institutions or cultures can collapse almost overnight when the right conjunction of events happens.  This particular election is a perfect storm, and anyone who loves this country should be in despair about the future.

As usual, I am not in the least interested in whether anyone agrees with me about the merits or demerits of the sociopath or of Secretary Clinton, who I believe will make a fine president if given half a chance.  Instead, I am interested only in whether you disagree with the basic thesis that A CRITICAL MASS OF the country, on November 9, will not only be disappointed in the outcome--which is, relatively speaking, par for the course in close elections--but, rather, find the ostensible winner to be "unacceptable" and, indeed, "illegitimate."  If I am wrong, please explain why.  I would feel much better.
Posted 10:27 PM by Sandy Levinson [link]