E-mail:
Jack Balkin: jackbalkin at yahoo.com
Bruce Ackerman bruce.ackerman at yale.edu
Ian Ayres ian.ayres at yale.edu
Corey Brettschneider corey_brettschneider at brown.edu
Mary Dudziak mary.l.dudziak at emory.edu
Joey Fishkin joey.fishkin at gmail.com
Heather Gerken heather.gerken at yale.edu
Abbe Gluck abbe.gluck at yale.edu
Mark Graber mgraber at law.umaryland.edu
Stephen Griffin sgriffin at tulane.edu
Jonathan Hafetz jonathan.hafetz at shu.edu
Jeremy Kessler jkessler at law.columbia.edu
Andrew Koppelman akoppelman at law.northwestern.edu
Marty Lederman msl46 at law.georgetown.edu
Sanford Levinson slevinson at law.utexas.edu
David Luban david.luban at gmail.com
Gerard Magliocca gmaglioc at iupui.edu
Jason Mazzone mazzonej at illinois.edu
Linda McClain lmcclain at bu.edu
John Mikhail mikhail at law.georgetown.edu
Frank Pasquale pasquale.frank at gmail.com
Nate Persily npersily at gmail.com
Michael Stokes Paulsen michaelstokespaulsen at gmail.com
Deborah Pearlstein dpearlst at yu.edu
Rick Pildes rick.pildes at nyu.edu
David Pozen dpozen at law.columbia.edu
Richard Primus raprimus at umich.edu
K. Sabeel Rahmansabeel.rahman at brooklaw.edu
Alice Ristroph alice.ristroph at shu.edu
Neil Siegel siegel at law.duke.edu
David Super david.super at law.georgetown.edu
Brian Tamanaha btamanaha at wulaw.wustl.edu
Nelson Tebbe nelson.tebbe at brooklaw.edu
Mark Tushnet mtushnet at law.harvard.edu
Adam Winkler winkler at ucla.edu
Donald Trump is a liar who is profoundly in love with
himself. Whether these sociopathic and
narcissistic tendencies make him sui generis is more controversial. My previously expressed view is that Trump,
who won the Republican nomination fair and square, exhibits the tendencies of
the modern Republican Party. Republicans who denounce Trump claim Trump is an accident who is not a fair representation of the
GOP leadership. The non-partisan
organization PolitiFact suggests a third alternative. Trump is fairly representative of the
politicians favored by the most influential wing of the Republican Party, but
not of the most establishment wing of that party.
PolitiFact evaluates the truthfulness of fact claims political
actors make when campaigning or governing.
Their surveys evaluate statements as “true,” “mostly true,” “half-true,”
“mostly false,” “false” and “pants on fire” ridiculous. For purposes of simplicity, the below
analysis treats as true those statements that PolitiFact evaluates as either true or
mostly true, and false those statements that PolitiFact evaluates as mostly false,
false and pants on fire ridiculous. Half-truths are left out, which is why the
percentages do not add up to one-hundred.
The data have interesting features that transcend present
presidential politics. Even the most
honest presidential candidates and politicians do not tell the truth one time in four. If
we would label an adult a sociopath who lied 25% of the time, then the United
States is governed by sociopaths. Our Congressional
leadership is particularly prone to falsehood.
Paul Ryan (34-42), Mitch McConnell (36-46), Nancy Pelosi (17-44) and
Harry Reid (37-51) make more false than true claims (the numbers reflect percentages). If a politician makes a long speech with
numerous fact claims, some will almost certainly be false. Nevertheless, so-called “balanced reporting”
that highlights the lies every candidate tells fails to inform the public that some politicians
tell the truth far more than others. Considerable variance, in particular, exists in the truth percentages of
candidates for the presidency.
Partisanship explains much of the variance in
truth-telling and lying among presidents and candidates for the presidency. Democrats in
the executive branch or running for the executive branch are twice as likely to
make true statements than false statements.
Hillary Clinton (50-27), Barack Obama (48-26), Bernie Sanders (52-26),
Tim Kaine (50-24) are particularly truthful, at least when compared to all
other prominent political actors. Joe Biden (40-33) is more truthful than
not. The two most prominent establishment
Republicans who ran for president in 2016, Jeb Bush (48-31) and John Kasich
(52-32), are almost, but not quite as truthful as prominent Democrats. Establishment Republicans who actively seek
support from evangelicals and Tea Party members, John McCain (40-42), Marco Rubio (36-41) and Mitt
Romney (31-42), are considerably less truthful. Those Republicans who represent the now dominant insurgencies within the party lie routinely. The numbers suggest such
luminaries as Sarah Palin (23-56), Ben Carson (7-82), Ted Cruz (22-65), Rick
Perry (29-47), Michael Pence (20-50), and Donald Trump (15-70) stumble upon true assertions largely by accident.
This evidence supports, with important qualifications, the good faith of Bush-Kasich
Republicans (i.e., the Republican defense establishment) who have recently
denounced Trump. Trump’s behavior is far different than the persons they believe most qualified to govern
the United States. Their favorites are relative truth tellers. Trump is not. The first qualification is that, contrary to some popular literature (see a particularly poorly argued piece by Jonathan Rauch in The Atlantic), no equivalence exists between Trump and Sanders that merits an implicit bargain whereby Republicans who denounce Trump today should be able to ask Democrats to denounce Sanders or a Sanders-like
candidate in 2020/2024. Sanders is a strong truth-teller,
at least when measured against his peers.
Trump is a barefaced liar, even by the low standards of contemporary
American politics.
The second qualification is that the evidence demonstrates that Trump is not sui generis in his incapacity for
truth-telling. He is typical of the candidates who appeal to the present
ascendant wing of the Republican Party. Trump
is more successful than Perry, Cruz, Palin, or Carson because he is a more
effective liar, not because he has a statistically significant tendency to lie
more. Both establishment Republicans in particular and Americans in general must find a way to change a constitutional culture in which a majority of voters in one party clear prefer candidates whose programs belong in the fiction section of the library. Denouncing Trump and Trump only as an outlier in American constitutional politics ignores the true threat to American constitutional democracy. Should, as appears probable, Clinton wins the election, Trump may go away, but if present tendencies continue, his replacement is more likely to be an even better liar than an establishment Republican who does not think "facts are stupid things."