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Compendium of posts on Hobby Lobby and related cases

The Anti-Torture Memos: Balkinization Posts on Torture, Interrogation, Detention, War Powers, and OLC

The Anti-Torture Memos (arranged by topic)

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Supreme Court Kremlinology

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Friday, March 30, 2012

Supreme Court Kremlinology

Andrew Koppelman


So what did this week’s oral arguments in the Supreme Court tell us about the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act?  There are two ways of predicting what the Supreme Court will do.  One is legal analysis.  You read the Court’s decisions, see what broad principles the judges have endorsed, and then apply those principles to the case before you.  But there is a second approach, which I’ll call Kremlinology, after the old practice of analysts trying to guess what the Central Committee of the Soviet Union was up to.  This attempts to piece together any evidence one can find of the whims of those in power, in order to intelligently guess how that power will be used.

One needs to keep that distinction in mind when one reads CNN legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin’s now-notorious statement Tuesday on CNN:   “This law looks like it’s going to be struck down. I’m telling you, all of the predictions, including mine, that the justices would not have a problem with this law were wrong.  I think this law is in grave, grave trouble.”

Some ACA opponents have taken this as vindication of their constitutional claims, showing that those claims were right all along.  But, of course, they show no such thing.

The rest of this post is on Salon.com, here.

Posted 7:00 PM by Andrew Koppelman [link]



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Books by Balkinization Bloggers

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Linda C. McClain and Aziza Ahmed, The Routledge Companion to Gender and COVID-19 (Routledge, 2024)

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David Pozen, The Constitution of the War on Drugs (Oxford University Press, 2024)

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What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said

Mark A. Graber, Punish Treason, Reward Loyalty: The Forgotten Goals of Constitutional Reform after the Civil War (University of Kansas Press, 2023)

What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said

Jack M. Balkin, What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said: The Nation's Top Legal Experts Rewrite America's Most Controversial Decision - Revised Edition (NYU Press, 2023)

Burning Down the House

Andrew Koppelman, Burning Down the House: How Libertarian Philosophy Was Corrupted by Delusion and Greed (St. Martin’s Press, 2022)

Washington's Heir

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The Anti-Oligarchy Constitution

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Mark Tushnet and Bojan Bugaric, Power to the People: Constitutionalism in the Age of Populism (Oxford University Press 2021).

Power to the People

Mark Philip Bradley and Mary L. Dudziak, eds., Making the Forever War: Marilyn B. Young on the Culture and Politics of American Militarism Culture and Politics in the Cold War and Beyond (University of Massachusetts Press, 2021).

What Obergefell v. Hodges Should Have Said

Jack M. Balkin, What Obergefell v. Hodges Should Have Said: The Nation's Top Legal Experts Rewrite America's Same-Sex Marriage Decision (Yale University Press, 2020)

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Frank Pasquale, New Laws of Robotics: Defending Human Expertise in the Age of AI (Belknap Press, 2020)

The Cycles of Constitutional Time

Jack M. Balkin, The Cycles of Constitutional Time (Oxford University Press, 2020)

Taking Back the Constitution

Mark Tushnet, Taking Back the Constitution: Activist Judges and the Next Age of American Law (Yale University Press 2020).

Gay Rights vs. Religious Liberty

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The Trillion Dollar Revolution

Ezekiel J Emanuel and Abbe R. Gluck, The Trillion Dollar Revolution: How the Affordable Care Act Transformed Politics, Law, and Health Care in America (PublicAffairs, 2020)

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Written in Stone

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Constitutional Democracy in Crisis

Mark A. Graber, Sanford Levinson, and Mark Tushnet, eds., Constitutional Democracy in Crisis? (Oxford University Press 2018)

The Heart of the Constitution

Gerard Magliocca, The Heart of the Constitution: How the Bill of Rights became the Bill of Rights (Oxford University Press, 2018)

Fault Lines in the Constitution

Cynthia Levinson and Sanford Levinson, Fault Lines in the Constitution: The Framers, Their Fights, and the Flaws that Affect Us Today (Peachtree Publishers, 2017)

A Realistic Theory of Law

Brian Z. Tamanaha, A Realistic Theory of Law (Cambridge University Press 2017)

Nullification and Secession in Modern Constitutional Thought

Sanford Levinson, Nullification and Secession in Modern Constitutional Thought (University Press of Kansas 2016)

An Argument Open to All

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Broken Trust

Stephen M. Griffin, Broken Trust: Dysfunctional Government and Constitutional Reform (University Press of Kansas, 2015)

Bottlenecks

Frank Pasquale, The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information (Harvard University Press, 2015)

We The People Volume III: The Civil Rights Revolution

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A New Introduction to American Constitutionalism

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Long Wars and the Constitution

Stephen M. Griffin, Long Wars and the Constitution (Harvard University Press, 2013)

The Tough Luck Constitution

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James E. Fleming and Linda C. McClain, Ordered Liberty: Rights, Responsibilities, and Virtues (Harvard University Press, 2013)

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Failing Law Schools

Brian Z. Tamanaha, Failing Law Schools (University of Chicago Press, 2012)

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Mary Dudziak, War Time: An Idea, Its History, Its Consequences

Linda C. McClain and Joanna L. Grossman, Gender Equality: Dimensions of Women's Equal Citizenship (Cambridge University Press, 2012)

Mary Dudziak, War Time: An Idea, Its History, Its Consequences

Mary Dudziak, War Time: An Idea, Its History, Its Consequences (Oxford University Press, 2012)

Living Originalism

Jack M. Balkin, Living Originalism (Harvard University Press, 2011)

Copyfraud and Other Abuses of Intellectual Property Law

Jason Mazzone, Copyfraud and Other Abuses of Intellectual Property Law (Stanford University Press, 2011)

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Constitutional Redemption: Political Faith in an Unjust World

Jack M. Balkin, Constitutional Redemption: Political Faith in an Unjust World (Harvard University Press, 2011)

The Tragedy of William Jennings Bryan

Gerard Magliocca, The Tragedy of William Jennings Bryan: Constitutional Law and the Politics of Backlash (Yale University Press, 2011)

The Illusion of Free Markets: Punishment and the Myth of Natural Order

Bernard Harcourt, The Illusion of Free Markets: Punishment and the Myth of Natural Order (Harvard University Press, 2010)

The Decline and Fall of the American Republic

Bruce Ackerman, The Decline and Fall of the American Republic (Harvard University Press, 2010)

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Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done

Ian Ayres. Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done (Bantam Books, 2010)

Why the Constitution Matters

Mark Tushnet, Why the Constitution Matters (Yale University Press 2010)

Lifecycle Investing

Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff: Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio (Basic Books, 2010)

The Laws of Change

Jack M. Balkin, The Laws of Change: I Ching and the Philosophy of Life (2d Edition, Sybil Creek Press 2009)

Beyond The Formalist/Realist Divide

Brian Z. Tamanaha, Beyond the Formalist-Realist Divide: The Role of Politics in Judging (Princeton University Press 2009)

A Right to Discriminate?

Andrew Koppelman and Tobias Barrington Wolff, A Right to Discriminate?: How the Case of Boy Scouts of America v. James Dale Warped the Law of Free Association (Yale University Press 2009)

The The Constitution in 2020

Jack M. Balkin and Reva B. Siegel, The Constitution in 2020 (Oxford University Press 2009)

The Democracy Index

Heather K. Gerken, The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix It (Princeton University Press 2009)

Exporting American Dreams

Mary Dudziak, Exporting American Dreams: Thurgood Marshall's African Journey (Oxford University Press 2008)

Legal Ethics and Human Dignity

David Luban, Legal Ethics and Human Dignity (Cambridge Univ. Press 2007)

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Ian Ayres, Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart (Bantam 2007)

Cybercrime

Jack M. Balkin, James Grimmelmann, Eddan Katz, Nimrod Kozlovski, Shlomit Wagman and Tal Zarsky, eds., Cybercrime: Digital Cops in a Networked Environment (N.Y.U. Press 2007)

State of Play

Jack M. Balkin and Beth Simone Noveck, The State of Play: Law, Games, and Virtual Worlds (N.Y.U. Press 2006)

Same Sex, Different States

Andrew Koppelman, Same Sex, Different States: When Same-Sex Marriages Cross State Lines (Yale University Press 2006)

Law as a Means to an End

Brian Tamanaha, Law as a Means to an End (Cambridge University Press 2006)

Our Undemocratic Constitution

Sanford Levinson, Our Undemocratic Constitution (Oxford University Press 2006)

Dred Scott and the Problem of Constitutional Evil

Mark Graber, Dred Scott and the Problem of Constitutional Evil (Cambridge University Press 2006)

What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said

Jack M. Balkin, ed., What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said (N.Y.U. Press 2005)

Torture: A Collection

Sanford Levinson, ed., Torture: A Collection (Oxford University Press 2004)



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