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Monday, October 03, 2011

The Poor Employment Market for Law Grads Predates the Recession

Brian Tamanaha

Two weeks ago I wrote a post about the remarkably high number of graduates of the class of 2009 who failed to obtain jobs as lawyers. When confronted with data like this, law schools respond that the dismal job placement rate is a recent phenomenon, a product of the current recession, suggesting that things were fine before and all will be well once again when the legal market rebounds. It’s wrong to isolate on and condemn law schools, they say, for results that reflect a historically bad time for jobs across the economy.

The problem with this response is that it is not true.

While it is correct that the recession exacerbated matters, things were not fine before, as demonstrated by the following chart, plotting the year before the recession, 2007 (in red), alongside 2009 (in blue). Notice that at many law schools--including schools ranked in the top 100--twenty percent or more of graduates of the class of 2007 failed to obtain jobs as lawyers (nine months after graduation).

Although the overall placement rate in lawyer jobs was indeed higher in 2007, prior to the implosion of the legal market that nailed the class of 2009, the same basic pattern held: ninety percent or more of the students at top law schools landed lawyer jobs while a significant percentage of graduates at many schools outside the elite did not.

NALP data on rates of employment across law schools tells us that this pattern extends at least as far back as 2001 (a change in data collection prevents comparisons with earlier periods). Here are the percentages of graduates who obtained jobs as lawyers in those years : 2001 (68.3 percent); 2002 (67 percent); 2003 (65.5 percent); 2004 (65.1 percent); 2005 (66.7 percent); 2006 (68.3 percent); 2007 (70.7 percent); 2008 (67.2 percent); 2009 (62.5 percent). (Throughout these years law schools listed on their websites and US News profile employment rates ranging from the high eighty percent range to the high ninety percent range.)

On a fairly consistent basis, almost one third of law graduates in the past decade have not obtained jobs as lawyers, and the above chart suggests that this is disproportionately the case at the lower ranked law schools.

There is every reason to believe that graduates of lower ranked law schools, if they had the chance, would gladly take lawyer jobs in the same 90 percent range as occurs at elite schools. The results show, obviously, that their degrees do not put them in a strong position to land jobs as lawyers. And this will not change even if the legal market undergoes a miraculous recovery.

Law schools frequently assert—and have said so for decades—that graduates who do not obtain jobs as lawyers often successfully use their law degree to advance their careers in other ways, usually citing the examples of graduates who obtain jobs in accounting firms and as FBI agents. Even if that is true in a number of instances, it cannot account for the large numbers of graduates who annually fail to get lawyer jobs. (More than 95 percent of law graduates sit for the bar exam, a substantial commitment of time and money after graduation which indicates a desire to at least be eligible to work as a lawyer.) Perhaps twenty years ago, or as late as ten years ago, a law graduate who did not land a job as a lawyer might still have come out okay financially. But with the high level of debt carried by law graduates today--nearly one third will graduate with debt in excess of $120,000--that can no longer be asserted with blithe confidence.

Law schools wooing the next crop of incoming students will no doubt use the line that the employment situation is bad now because of the recession, but things will get better when the legal market turns around. And they will tell prospective students that three and a half years between now and their anticipated graduation is plenty of time for the job recovery to take place.

Don't buy it. There is no sign that the legal market will improve. And even if it does, at many law schools one-out-of three or one-out-of four graduates will not get jobs as lawyers.



[The data I used to provide this information is from Law School Transparency, which provides placement information for each school on excel spreadsheets for 2007, 2008, and 2009. I must emphasize that the NALP data relies on self-reporting and thus likely exaggerates the actual success rate.]

Comments:

An excellent piece as usual, although perhaps the problems associated with the data set could have received higher billing.

Of course, with the ABA's recent changes, this kind of information will no longer be available going forward. This is problematic to say the least.
 

"Grads Employed at 9 Months with Job Requiring JD"

The operative terms being "job," "at," and "requiring."

Are jobs part-time or full-time?

How long did it take for grads to find jobs? Will they have jobs after nine months after graduation? For how long?

Do jobs that require JDs make substantial use of the knowledge and skills acquired in law school?

I have grave fears about the actual career-spans and attrition rates law degree-holders in legal positions have. This is why I don't see transparency as the end-all solution to law schools' problems. Although, I'm impressed that even NALP data, inaccurate as it is, can still falsify the belief that the backlog of graduates will have law jobs once the economy recovers.

Nicely done.
 

So the supply of legal services has caught up with and surpassed demand.

Is this somehow controversial?
 

LSTB--thanks for reminding me--these numbers include part time positions (less than 35 hours a week). I do not have the break down for part time positions pre-2007. In recent years it ranges, at some schools, as high as 20 percent of JD required jobs are part time.

As all the comments suggest, the true results are below what these numbers suggest, yet it is bad enough even at inflated levels.
 

@jpk:

The mere fact, no.

That law schools continue to pretend otherwise in their employment reporting, yes.
 

Wow are you seriously deleting my comments where I explain how you are presenting misleading numbers that overstate the job placement out of law school by a factor of two? Exactly as I thought.
 

If anyone wants to read the critique of "wolf in sheep's clothing" Tamanaha's work see the comment in 2:29 here

http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot.com/2011/10/question-from-law-school-dean.html?showComment=1317677544721#c3904124163598849231

Prof. Tamanaha wants you to believe that at T100 schools, 75% of the grads get jobs as lawyers (it's more like 33%) and that even at terrible law schools 50% get such jobs! The chart he keeps publishing presents a glowing image of law school job placement that is completely out of touch with reality. Prof. Tamanaha is a special kind of law school fraudster - the kind who presents fraud under the guise of criticizing it.
 

Citrus7,

Just to let you know, I have never deleted comments in five years of writing on this blog. (I don't know how to delete comments, believe it or not, although I'm sure I could figure it out.) If your comment did not go up, something happened in the transmission.

You are right that the numbers I cite likely overstate the true job placement rate owing to reliance on self-reporting from law schools. The job situation is worse than these numbers indicate (as I indicate at the bottom of the post). But I can only work with the numbers that are available.

I doubt that readers see these numbers as a "glowing image of law school job placement." These numbers are very poor.
 

I have grave fears about the actual career-spans and attrition rates law degree-holders in legal positions have. This is why I don't see transparency as the end-all solution to law schools' problems.So the supply of legal services has caught up with and surpassed demand.
 

So the supply of legal services has caught up with and surpassed demand.
 

Your article has proven useful to me. It’s very informative and you are obviously very knowledgeable in this area. You have opened my eyes to varying views on this topic with interesting and solid content.
 

very interesting
 

I have grave fears about the actual career-spans and attrition rates law degree-holders in legal positions have.
 

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Business Lawyer Ma Comment:

Does this say supply is over than the demand?
 

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