Balkinization: Will We Know the Identity of the Democratic Nominee on the Morning of February 6th?

Will We Know the Identity of the Democratic Nominee on the Morning of February 6th?

Marty Lederman

Almost assuredly not. In fact, neither Senator Clinton nor Senator Obama is likely to be even halfway to the required total of 2023 delegates by then, and the delegate difference between them on February 6th is likely to be quite small.

As of right now, Obama has 63 "pledged" delegates, to 48 for Clinton and 26 for John Edwards. On February 5th, 1688 further pledged delegates will be chosen, from 22 states, American Samoa, and Democrats abroad. Of those 1688 delegates, 1096 will be allocated on a congressional-district-level basis. And, as the New York Times reports today, the allocation rules are such that, where a particular district has an even number of delegates, they are likely to be split evenly between Clinton and Obama, except in those rare districts where one of those candidates fails to secure 30 percent of the vote. Therefore, the candidates are aiming their focus on those districts that have an odd number of delegates (e.g., one or three), in hopes that in those particular districts they will gain a one-delegate advantage over the other candidate! (This imperative of delegate-hunting at the retail level is less pronounced on the Republican side, where some states (e.g., New York, New Jersey and Missouri), and many districts, are winner-takes-all.)

Another 592 pledged delegates will be chosen on February 5th at the statewide level -- but even here, the splits between Clinton and Obama are not likely to be very large, except in those states, if any (perhaps, for example, Illinois and Georgia for Obama; New York and New Jersey for Clinton) where one candidate wins by a large margin.

As the Times notes:

This new dynamic is not only challenging the way the candidates are approaching the contest, but is also throwing into confusion how the results of these contests should be judged, by the campaigns and by the news media that report on them. Given Democratic rules, it is entirely possible for one candidate to win a majority of Feb. 5 states, and enjoy the election night ratification that comes with a TV network map displaying the geographic sweep of that person’s accomplishment, while his (or her) opponent ends the night with the most delegates.

Moreover, it is highly likely that both Clinton and Obama will receive between 750 and 950 delegates on February 5th; that neither will be much, if at all, above 1000 delegates come February 6th; and that the difference between them on that date -- two weeks from Wednesday -- might be less than 100 delegates.

This means that the subsequent primaries will be much more important than most of us have long assumed. Some highlights:

Louisiana/Nebraska/Washington on February 9th (158 pledged delegates)

Virginia, Maryland and D.C. on February 12th (168 pledged delegates)

Ohio/Rhode Island/Texas on March 4th (355 pledged delegates)

Pennsylvania on April 22d (151 pledged delegates)

Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th (157 pledged delegates).

But in those later contests, too, the total awarded delegates are likely to be very evenly split between Clinton and Obama, unless one of them has by then somehow been deemed a clearly established front-runner with overwhelming momentum. Accordingly, as the Times notes, we may be in for a "long-term slog."

Indeed, it is entirely possible that both Clinton and Obama will enter the Convention in Denver on August 25th with pledged delegates short of the 2023 needed to secure the nomination. (There will be 3253 pledged delegates in total.) In that case, the nomination may well be decided by the 796 unpledged, or so-called "super," delegates -- 397 members of the DNC; 300 members of Congress and Governors; and 99 others. Of these, about 200 have already announced their support for Senator Clinton, and about 100 have said they will support Senator Obama. But even if those 300 or so votes do not change (and there's no guarantee of that), the remaining 500 unpledged votes are up for grabs.

Posted 1:20 AM by Marty Lederman [link]

Comments:

The "super" delegates would no doubt have a role to play. So might delegates pledged to John Edwards. If there's no first ballot majority, he could be in a position to negotiate with Clinton and Obama for policy and/or personnel commitments in exchange for delegate votes on the second ballot.

# posted by

Bob Richard : 10:01 AM

A brokered convention!

I can well imagine who's gearing up to do the brokering, that and the teams of corporate associates tasked with finding them a '40 Act exemption.

# posted by

Occasional Observer : 11:52 PM

With Edwards out of the race, how will the numbers change?

# posted by

SometimesHere : 12:26 PM