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Balkinization Symposiums: A Continuing List                                                                E-mail: Jack Balkin: jackbalkin at yahoo.com Bruce Ackerman bruce.ackerman at yale.edu Ian Ayres ian.ayres at yale.edu Corey Brettschneider corey_brettschneider at brown.edu Mary Dudziak mary.l.dudziak at emory.edu Joey Fishkin joey.fishkin at gmail.com Heather Gerken heather.gerken at yale.edu Abbe Gluck abbe.gluck at yale.edu Mark Graber mgraber at law.umaryland.edu Stephen Griffin sgriffin at tulane.edu Jonathan Hafetz jonathan.hafetz at shu.edu Jeremy Kessler jkessler at law.columbia.edu Andrew Koppelman akoppelman at law.northwestern.edu Marty Lederman msl46 at law.georgetown.edu Sanford Levinson slevinson at law.utexas.edu David Luban david.luban at gmail.com Gerard Magliocca gmaglioc at iupui.edu Jason Mazzone mazzonej at illinois.edu Linda McClain lmcclain at bu.edu John Mikhail mikhail at law.georgetown.edu Frank Pasquale pasquale.frank at gmail.com Nate Persily npersily at gmail.com Michael Stokes Paulsen michaelstokespaulsen at gmail.com Deborah Pearlstein dpearlst at yu.edu Rick Pildes rick.pildes at nyu.edu David Pozen dpozen at law.columbia.edu Richard Primus raprimus at umich.edu K. Sabeel Rahmansabeel.rahman at brooklaw.edu Alice Ristroph alice.ristroph at shu.edu Neil Siegel siegel at law.duke.edu David Super david.super at law.georgetown.edu Brian Tamanaha btamanaha at wulaw.wustl.edu Nelson Tebbe nelson.tebbe at brooklaw.edu Mark Tushnet mtushnet at law.harvard.edu Adam Winkler winkler at ucla.edu Compendium of posts on Hobby Lobby and related cases The Anti-Torture Memos: Balkinization Posts on Torture, Interrogation, Detention, War Powers, and OLC The Anti-Torture Memos (arranged by topic) Recent Posts "Spoilers"
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Wednesday, November 08, 2006
"Spoilers"
Sandy Levinson
I note that both Virginia and Montana have third party candidates for the Senate who have won enough votes possibly to affect the election. A so-called "Green" candidate in Virginia (not actually affiliated with the national Green Party) has won about 25,000 votes, more than the margin between Webb and Allen. There's no particularly way of knowing how her votes would break were she not in the race: she's a former Pentagon analyst who apparently ran on a platform of fiscal responsibility and a high-speed transportation network for northern Virginia. In Montana, the Libertarian candidate got 2.1% of the vote, far more than the margin between Treaster and Burns. I assume that most of those votes would have gone to Burns had it been a forced choice. And, of course, everyone remembers the fiasco of 2000. Might this not be a propitious moment for a bipartisan coalition to propose the Alternative Transferrable Vote as a way of 1) eliminating the role of "spoilers" and b) at the very same time, encouraging third party critics of the ossified two party system to run their races and make their pitches. The ATV allows voters to rank order their favorites. If their #1 choice comes in last (in a three-person race, for ease of analysis), then the #2 choice is counted. This results in a winner who has the most plausible claim to being the genuine choice of the majority, unlike the First Past the Post System, which guarantees the frustration of majority will with some regularity RICK PERRY (R) 39 percent CHRIS BELL (D) 30 percent CAROLE KEETON STRAYHORN (I) 18 percent KINKY FRIEDMAN (I) 12 percent JAMES WERNER (L) 1 percent
Comments:
Professor,
Why does ATV seem to me like a violation of "one person, one vote"? I cannot currently explicate it myself, but I'm betting you've heard similar concerns better expressed and also have ready answers for same.
Sandy,
There are various mathematical ways to pick a single winner out of a field of more than two candidates, none of which can guarantee that all fairness criteria are met. Let us use your method. We'll look at the following election: 1st place - Joe Schmoe - 145 1st place votes - 5 2nd place votes 2nd place - Rin Din - 145 1st place votes - 5 2nd place votes 3rd place - Nanc Fanc - 10 1st place votes - 290 2nd place votes Followers of the two major candidate refused to vote for the other major candidate. Instead, they all voted for the third party candidate as a quasi-protest vote. Round one, no majority winner. Round two, Nanc Fanc, the third party candidate wins! Obviously, I cooked the books, but that's the point. I don't think you really intended to elect Ralph Nader in 2000. It's difficult to say, however, that the election wasn't fair. You set it up. Nanc won it fair and square. Generally, when there are more than two candidates, it is impossible to satisfy all election fairness criteria. However, there are various methods that have been developed mathematically: Borda Count, Plurality with Elimination, Pairwise Comparision. Again, none guarantees fairness. Fairness is mathematically an impossibility where there are more than two candidates. Also, you'd have to do the analysis at the level of the candidate. That would mean for Virginia senate, you'd have to await all precincts before starting your analysis. It would have to be done at the state level. At the national level, right now, the method would be impracticable, since there is no national voting agency that aggregates all votes, prior to doing analysis on them. I really enjoy your blog, one of my daily essentials. Finally I have something to post.
Actually, I now realize that my method is different from yours. The method you are suggesting is an actual mathematical method, the Borda count method. Same caveats apply, however.
I agree with HGilbert, Sandy, although in a present tense. Consider the experience in San Francisco where supervisorial elections have adopted a plan much like your rollover ATV; the unanticipated outcome was precampaign secret alliances and subsequent outright slate campaigning. City supervisor elections there are nonpartisan.
I much prefer the stress which the two principal party organizations must feel when facing upstart splinter parties: to bring them under the umbrella, by compromise, and by giving the microconstituencies a voice. It is a way for the two majority parties to mature with the times and stay in touch with the people who vote.
robert link write, "Why does ATV seem to me like a violation of "one person, one vote"?"
It is not. It provides "one person, one vote." Under the current system, a vote for a third party is give a person no power to choose between the top two contenders. With IRV, every citizen has a chance to express which candidate they prefer. In any case, how could it violate one-person-one vote if everyone has the same right to rank their choices? russael writes: "Followers of the two major candidate refused to vote for the other major candidate. Instead, they all voted for the third party candidate as a quasi-protest vote. . . . Obviously, I cooked the books, but that's the point." What more really needs to be said? Why would every conservative "protest" by selecting Nader? I scoff. It seems I must inform you that there are other 3rd party candidates. As a person who is generally liberal, I would not select Pat Buchanan over a more moderate Republican. The current 3d party/independent spoiler is a very real problem. Why invent a fantasy scenario to fault IRV? Alan writes, "A better option IMHO is to allow the candidate rather than the voter to transfer his or her votes to another candidate." I would hate to see the litigation when a "deal" is brokered just one minute late. This system might also give a relatively small party tremendous power. Or if there are enough parties, you are really creating a second-stage proportional representation congress: each person votes for a party, then a coalition forms a "government" to appoint a "prime minister." Why distance voters even further from their elected representatives? Richard Winger writes, "If Canada and Great Britain will switch to some form of proportional representation, the U.S. will follow." This is a joke, right? Mr. Warren D Smith supports range voting. He criticizes IRV because in some limited circumstances, a voter might vote strategically to get their second best choice. However, he admits that range voting encourages strategic voting as well: from the FAQs: "Doesn't my vote for my second-favorite B perhaps hurt my first-favorite A? Yes, if it comes down to an A versus B battle. In that case, you might end up wishing you'd given B zero! But, in every other circumstance, it helps you." Oops! Most Americans would choose the more moderate Republican or Democrat over Nader or a Libertarian candidate, but the smart way to vote is to give the preferred choice, A, 99 and the second-favorite, B, 0. I can't believe someone would spend so much time defending a system he already knows doesn't work. And, uh, we're not bees.
I have to go to Minneapolis tomorrow morning at 6AM, so I don't have time to respond to all of these interesting and thoughtful comments. I do want to make one observation about the Australian Senate, though. My understanding is that each of the six states has six senators AND THAT THEY ARE ELECTED IN BY A SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION that means that there are third (and maybe even fourth) parties in some of the state delegations. This strikes me as an excellent notion, where the second house purposely opens itself up to a wider range of represenatives than is available in the first house. (Incidentally, this requires that all the senators be elected simultaneously, rather than the staggered term system that we have.)
In any event, I am delighted that this discussion is taking on a comparative dimension.
Russael's example isn't the way I understood this to work. I thought that the candidate with the fewest votes was eliminated, and then we looked at the ballots of everyone being counted as a vote for that candidate, and looked at who their next choice was. So the first step to determining a winner is to look at the 10 ballots for Nanc Fanc and assign their votes to their second choice. So we'd add say 6 to one and 4 to the other. Then the next step is to eliminate the new bottom candidate, and check the ballots of the people who voted for that one to reassign them to their next choice, if they are still in the race. That would continue until there was only one candidate left, the winner.
I also wish there was a way to vote AGAINST someone. In the gov race, I was considering voting for Grace Ross, thinking that maybe enough of us would think Oatrick was so safe that we'd all vote for Ross, but then I worried that maybe Healey would lose by a whisker to Patrick, so I'd regret not voting for her. But if could have just voted against Patrick, then either way, my vote would have counted. Not that I don't like Patrick, mind you, I just like underdogs. How about if we had CHANGABLE votes? We could vote on-line, staring say November 1st. Totals would be posted, and we'd see that Patrick had a huge lead. And he'd reveal some character flaw, and we could switch or vote to Ross. More people would see that Ross was truly gaining, and they'd switch to Ross too. This would go on for a week or two, and we could see what the effect of our vote is, realtime, and have time to think about changing it. Or, most likely, we could vote once and forget about it. Then at the end of two weeks, voting would end, and we'd instantly see who we decided on. Technically possible?
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What is a popular revolution? Its seems to me that a fundamental change in the system or the structure of government to move decisively control a set of one interest to another, and led by the popular will. The outcome of the election clears the last of these three categories (only the second surface, the first not at all).WOW GoldWOW Items GoldBuy WOW ItemsCheap WOW ItemsTera Goldbuy tera goldTera GoldBuy WOW Gold
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Whilst this election really ought to be none of my hajar jahanam mesir, its sad but true the US effectively dictates UK foreign policy. So this election, in which I didn't get a vote, has more effect on the behaviour of my government in the field of foreign affairs than the elections I do vote in (and when it comes to the US my country is more independent than many, even most).
Hopefully this then permits me to make a couple of observations. What is a "popular revolution"? Its Madu Diet Ath Thoifah seems to me that its a fundamental change to the very system or structure of government, moving control decisively Madu Diet Ath Thoifah from a one set of interests to another, and driven by the popular will. The election result only clearly fits the last of these three categories (the second only superficially, the first not at all). As Noam Chomsky says in his recent book "Failed States", polling data shows the Democrats and the Republicans to be a good distance to the right of the US public on major issues like the economy, foreign policy and Obat Lamandel the environment. As always , there's a serious discrepancy between what the public voted for in this election and what they will actually get. The very point of state-capitalist managed democracy is to prevent popular revolution, or even control, of the decision making process. Irrespective of what US voters want, the operative view remains that those “who own the country ought to govern it”, in the words of John Jay. Of course small differences like this make Mastin Kulit Manggis for big outcomes in the real world when you're talking about an entity as powerful as the US. But amidst the euphoria its also important to recognise the limits of the difference that this will make. In respect of Iraq for example, we can hardly forget that hundreds of thousands of people, around half infants under the age of 5, were effectively murdered by our governments during the last Democratic presidency through sanctions. Will the welfare of Iraqis now become a driving concern in US Congressional politics? Dems quibble about tactics. Their's is not a moral objection to the trashing of international law and institutions, the waging of a war of aggression, acts of straightforward terrorism like the assault on Falluja or a return to the age of colonialism (whatever the public makes of such things). They have never argued against the real moral issue: a “War on Terror” conceived not as the pursuit of Al Qaeda but as a generalised, aggressive military-based effort to impose Washington’s will on the world and make the unipolar moment permanent, irrespective of the (non-American) human costs. The Dems have simply argued that the policy isn’t being pursued successfully. Wehrmacht generals probably had stand-up blazing rows about the success of Operation Barbarossa, but none about whether German Imperialism was right or wrong. Ask yourself what would have happened if Iraq had been colonised successfully, with a client government, Vatican City–sized US Embassy, control over oil production, permanent military bases and the effective exclusion of Iraqis from the running of their country all secured. Would there have been a peep from the Democrats?
What's interesting is that toko obat herbal online would quite likely have lost in any system other than First Past the Post. In any event, this is ample proof that the system of voting matters with regard to producing winners, who may or may not plausibly be said to represent majority harga crystal x asli. Is there any good reason to prefer a system that results in some predictable incidence of disdain for majority sentiment over one that guarantees a more majoritarian result? I can't think of one (save for arguments made by ethnic minorities that they can occasionally win elections if the "majority" coalition is split between two hajar jahanam mesir asli).
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Balkin, Living Originalism (Harvard University Press, 2011) Jason Mazzone, Copyfraud and Other Abuses of Intellectual Property Law (Stanford University Press, 2011) Richard W. Garnett and Andrew Koppelman, First Amendment Stories, (Foundation Press 2011) Jack M. Balkin, Constitutional Redemption: Political Faith in an Unjust World (Harvard University Press, 2011) Gerard Magliocca, The Tragedy of William Jennings Bryan: Constitutional Law and the Politics of Backlash (Yale University Press, 2011) Bernard Harcourt, The Illusion of Free Markets: Punishment and the Myth of Natural Order (Harvard University Press, 2010) Bruce Ackerman, The Decline and Fall of the American Republic (Harvard University Press, 2010) Balkinization Symposium on The Decline and Fall of the American Republic Ian Ayres. Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done (Bantam Books, 2010) Mark Tushnet, Why the Constitution Matters (Yale University Press 2010) Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff: Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio (Basic Books, 2010) Jack M. Balkin, The Laws of Change: I Ching and the Philosophy of Life (2d Edition, Sybil Creek Press 2009) Brian Z. Tamanaha, Beyond the Formalist-Realist Divide: The Role of Politics in Judging (Princeton University Press 2009) Andrew Koppelman and Tobias Barrington Wolff, A Right to Discriminate?: How the Case of Boy Scouts of America v. James Dale Warped the Law of Free Association (Yale University Press 2009) Jack M. Balkin and Reva B. Siegel, The Constitution in 2020 (Oxford University Press 2009) Heather K. Gerken, The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix It (Princeton University Press 2009) Mary Dudziak, Exporting American Dreams: Thurgood Marshall's African Journey (Oxford University Press 2008) David Luban, Legal Ethics and Human Dignity (Cambridge Univ. Press 2007) Ian Ayres, Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart (Bantam 2007) Jack M. Balkin, James Grimmelmann, Eddan Katz, Nimrod Kozlovski, Shlomit Wagman and Tal Zarsky, eds., Cybercrime: Digital Cops in a Networked Environment (N.Y.U. Press 2007) Jack M. Balkin and Beth Simone Noveck, The State of Play: Law, Games, and Virtual Worlds (N.Y.U. Press 2006) Andrew Koppelman, Same Sex, Different States: When Same-Sex Marriages Cross State Lines (Yale University Press 2006) Brian Tamanaha, Law as a Means to an End (Cambridge University Press 2006) Sanford Levinson, Our Undemocratic Constitution (Oxford University Press 2006) Mark Graber, Dred Scott and the Problem of Constitutional Evil (Cambridge University Press 2006) Jack M. Balkin, ed., What Roe v. Wade Should Have Said (N.Y.U. Press 2005) Sanford Levinson, ed., Torture: A Collection (Oxford University Press 2004) Balkin.com homepage Bibliography Conlaw.net Cultural Software Writings Opeds The Information Society Project BrownvBoard.com Useful Links Syllabi and Exams |