The Katrina Experiment

Anonymous

The United States has begun a large-scale human experiment of the kind social scientists only dream about. The authorities instituted a mandatory evacuation of an old city and the surrounding region and are now attempting to literally jump-start its economy, society, culture, and politics. Can they pull it off? From the perspective of governance, looking at the many ways our constitutional and legal order interacts with politics and society, the reconstruction of southeast Louisiana is certainly the most interesting (and possibly the most important) phenomenon on the contemporary American political scene.

It is one that concerns me directly, since I teach constitutional law at the Tulane University School of Law. I say “teach,” although the fall semester has been cancelled and the campus is still closed to everyone, including faculty. So I am writing and thinking about Katrina from the relative safety of my home in Mandeville, Louisiana, on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in St. Tammany Parish.

There are all sorts of policy issues connected with Hurricane Katrina, of course, but one of the most interesting consequences of the storm is how it has revealed the preconditions for effective governance in the contemporary United States. A simple example, drawn from still-unfolding developments, is provided by the empty coffers of local governments. The governments of southeast Louisiana, including the city of New Orleans, are running out of money. No tax base equals no money. That’s obvious you might think, although prior to Katrina no one thought about this problem because it was thought that after a hurricane, everyone would just move back in (as they had done so many times before). Now, however, there is nothing to move back to across tens of square miles. The federal government is the only government capable of funding the operating expenses of local government. But on what basis and under what conditions?

Here’s another precondition: the balance between confidence and uncertainty. As you read this, a crucially important race is being run in Louisiana, a race between confidence and uncertainty, one largely governed by perceptions of risk about the future. Individuals are wondering whether insurance will cover their damages, whether federal help will step in for insurance, whether New Orleans will Nola be safe and non-toxic, and so on. Businesses are wondering whether their employees will show up, whether they will be able to hire in an area with a labor shortage, whether they will get a loan from the Small Business Administration, and insurance, insurance, insurance. And everyone is thinking about hurricane protection in the future – what will the federal government do to improve the levee and coastal protection system. Everyone is studying the news for signs – is the water on? Is the power coming back to my neighborhood? What’s going on with my house? The more these reasonable questions can be answered, confidence grows and people will expect New Orleans to come back. The more time that goes by without answers and convincing leadership, uncertainty starts to win the race. I suggest uncertainty is a killer of communities and economies. Everyone who lives here who has some damage and doesn’t have a perfectly secure job or business is having their confidence slowly eroded by uncertainty about the future. And that could severely impact the Katrina experiment, the reconstruction and repopulation of Nola (the term I will use for New Orleans and the surrounding region).

The drag of Louisiana’s past is not helping matters. Hurricane Katrina has been a clear lesson in the role that stereotypes play in framing responses to unusual, complex policy matters. There are many stereotypes kicking around, but the most salient right now is the specter of corruption. Not to sound too defensive, but any fair review of news articles over, say, the last two years would show plenty of local/state corruption in New York (although that state would do better if Long Island were removed), New Jersey (local again), and Connecticut (governor), although I don’t believe any of these states is surrounded by a special aura of corruption. But the corruption stereotype is also a distraction from the real problem that has plagued the state’s development efforts in the past – a perfectly legal, though unwise emphasis on benefiting your family (kin) and friends first, to the exclusion of (dare I mention it) the common good. But Katrina is the kind of event that should remind us that on occasion there is a common good, if it is only the one of avoiding policy disasters that are in no one’s interest.

Addendum, October 12 -- On how the "race of perceptions" looks in Louisiana, see the guest column in today's Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/11/AR2005101101324.html. I note the NYT today called for Bush to actually submit a reconstruction plan; people here are getting impatient as well. Reading between the various news articles, it seems a plan is being drafted by House Republicans, not the White House.
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