Balkinization

Bad Diplomacy, Worse Results, Part II

Capitol Hill Blue reports that Bush's advisors have begun suggesting that he not press for a second resolution at the U.N. on the grounds that it is likely to fail.

"The vote in Turkey f**cked things up big time," grumbles one White House aide. "It pushes our timetable back. On the other hand, it might give us a chance to save face."
"Saving face" means backing away from a showdown with the UN Security Council next week and agreeing to let the weapons inspection process run its course.
"The arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed gives us some breathing room," says a Bush strategist. "We can concentrate on the favorable publicity generated by the arrest and the valuable intelligence we have gained from that event."
Mohammed, arrested in Pakistan, masterminded the 9-11 terrorist attacks. CIA agents found computer files, memos and other materials which pointed to plans for new attacks against the U.S.
"The prudent thing to do would be to let Iraq cool off on a back burner and concentrate on Mohammed," says Democratic strategist Arnold Beckins. "Saddam isn't going anywhere. There's too much heat on him right now for him to pull something."
Right now, only the U.S., Britain and Spain favor immediate military action against Iraq. With most of the other allies lining up against the U.S., Bush faces both a diplomatic and public relations nightmare if he proceeds against Hussein without UN backing.
"We've always needed an exit strategy," admits one White House aide. "Circumstances have given us one. We shouldn't ignore it."

Three things about this story.

(1) Would that all of this were true. I'd be thrilled if Bush decided to take more time. As I've noted before, if you are planning a war, October is a much better time to have it than March. I'd be even happier if Bush decided to declare victory and go home, arguing that his threats of armed action have effectively boxed Saddam in for the present.

(2) Despite my hopes that he will see the error of his ways at this late date, I very much doubt that Bush will refrain from going to war, given his temperament and all the signals he's been sending over the past few months. He seems determined to do the wrong thing at the wrong time for all the wrong reasons.

(3) The reason why Bush is being put in this pickle is that his Administration has been simply terrible at diplomacy. By alienating his allies, throwing his weight around, and insisting that nothing anyone else does can sway him, Bush has effectively made it impossible to achieve what he most desires-- a strong U.N. resolution placing the support of the world community behind his goal of disarming and replacing Saddam. The Administration's problem has been that it doesn't take diplomacy seriously-- it appears to believe that tough talk and threats of force are the only way to get things done internationally. The events of the last few months have proved that this position is both naive and dangerous. If Bush has to back down at this point, he will reap what he has sown. And if he goes to war regardless, we all will reap what he has sown.

Posted 2:53 PM by JB [link]