JB

Many people who think that we should not immediately go to war with Iraq are dismayed that Colin Powell, the voice of reason in the Bush Administration, has been made the point man for war at the United Nations. Given that Powell is the author of the Powell Doctrine, which asserts that you don't attack unless you have overwhelming force and a clear exist strategy, why is he pushing us to get into a war without a clear exit strategy-- a war that may have the most disastrous consequences for us and for the world in the next two decades?

The answer is that Colin Powell is not just an ordinary citizen. He is Secretary of State, and he works for George W. Bush. Even if he would prefer to avoid war, he is doing exactly what a rational actor would do given his role and his preferences.

Assume that Powell thinks as follows:

His first choice is to avoid war, because there is no clear exit strategy and the consequences of war are unpredictable and may even be disastrous.

His second choice is to go to war only with full U.N. support, which gets us both the legitimacy of U.N. authorization and the promise of assistance by other countries after the war is over. It also strengthens international cooperation and international institutions for keeping the peace against threats posed by rogue states like Iraq.

His least favorite option is going to war without U.N. authorization, because this will split the Atlantic coallition, undermine NATO, alienate France, Germany, and Russia, send Europe on its own path, and lead to all of the unexpected and dangerous consequences of going to war without a clear way out.

Now let's add one more fact. He knows, and he has known since at least mid January, that the President has made up his mind that he is going to war no matter what happens in the U.N.. Powell argued against war for months, but he lost. So now what should he do?

At this point, he knows he can't get his favorite option. So of the two other possibilities, he has a strong preference for number two-- U.N. authorization and support. That is why he is pressing the case as emphatically as possible. He knows that he can't convince his boss, but maybe, just maybe, he can convince the Security Council, and this will make the war-- if there is to be war-- much less dangerous and destabilizing than it might otherwise be.

So the next time you see Colin Powell's frustration, understand-- he's not play acting. This is for real. He knows that war is coming, and he wants the war to go forward with the least possible chance of disaster. He is being not only a patriot, but also a responsible world citizen. He is doing what he can, given the limitations of the role he is in, to avert or at least ameliorate what he believes may well be a situation of great danger for the United States and the world.

If all this is true, you may ask, why doesn't Powell just escape the constraints of his role by resigning? The answer is that he can't really resign right now. If he does, the hawks in the Administration will win: the United States will go to war without U.N. support, and it will do so sooner rather than later.

Powell is between a rock and a hard place. It is a problem not of his own making, but because he works for a President who is too stubborn and aggressive for his-- and the country's and the world's-- own good. Powell has the misfortune to be Secretary of State to a President who, as I have noted previously, is simply not up to the task of deailng with the complexities of a post-9-11 world. And the rest of us-- in the country, and the world--- are being held hostage to the President's character flaws. It is sobering indeed to recognize that one man's intransigence is about to send the word into a brutal and destructive war. I am not talking about Saddam Hussein. I am talking about George W. Bush, who seems, more than ever, to live up to his title as the most dangerous person on Earth.

As the world hurtles toward a future we cannot predict, Colin Powell must play the hand he has been dealt. He is on the opposite side of this controversy from me. Nevertheless, I admire the man greatly and I wish him God speed.