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Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Is Trump v. Anderson Moot?

The answer is no, but let's think about why. The Colorado primary is on Tuesday. We will probably not get a decision from the Court by Tuesday. Why won't that moot the case?

First, the primary results will not be certified right away. The Court's opinion could come down before the Colorado Secretary of State declares the official winner. This is what happened in Cawthorn v. Amalfi, the Section Three challenge brought against Representative Madison Cawthorn in 2022. The Fourth Circuit's opinion came out after Cawthorn lost his primary but before the result was certified. Thus, the Court said that the case was not moot.

Second, presidential primary results can be understood as tentative until the National Convention is held. Primaries award delegates to candidates. But those delegates will not vote until the GOP convention in July. Thus, a case involving primary eligibility is a live controversy until the Convention.

Third, for prudential reasons the Court will want to decide now on some theory, however far-fetched.

UPDATE: Though not likely to last for long, an Illinois court today ruled Donald Trump ineligible to appear on the state primary ballot.

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