1968, not 1972

My reminiscence about McGovern/Eagleton reminded me of a point I have particularly wanted to stress. Don't think that this election is a replay of 1972. The Dems lost in 1968 and were eager to remove Richard Nixon, whom they thought shouldn't have won in the first place. But in 1972, Nixon ran a great campaign (and, not entirely coincidentally, his people also broke the law, and bugged the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee) and trounced McGovern.

Republican pundits would like that to be this election. But that's not this election. This election is more like 1968, in which a President and his advisors got ensnared in their own self-delusion, and created a credibility gap that ultimately prevented an incumbent President from being reelected during wartime, a very rare event in American history. Johnson saw the handwriting on the wall and didn't even try to seek renomination. Bush, by contrast, will fight to the bitter end. But I believe that the ultimate result will be the same.

There are lots of important differences between now and 1968. I can think of ten of them off the bat. But the key point is that this election is crucial to the future of the country, just as that one was, and it will shape what the two major political parties will stand for going forward into the future.