Latinos as Swing Voters

This New York Times article points out that George W. Bush won 44 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, in part by appealing to cultural issues like opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.

I have always believed that the Republicans don't have to win a majority of the Latino vote to be competitive-- they only have to win 35 to 40 percent. Bush did much better than that, and it is a major reason why he won the 2004 election.

If Republicans can consistently win 35-40 percent of the Latino vote, Democrats will consistently lose. That means that Democrats have to pay much more attention to Latino voters. Latinos have become an important group of swing voters-- possibly the most important group-- and we can expect that both parties increasingly will attempt to appeal to their interests in the coming years.